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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0396

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Apr 4 20:29:54 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 042029
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 042029=20
    VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-042300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0396
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0329 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

    Areas affected...southern Kentucky and northern Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 042029Z - 042300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
    intensity through the afternoon across the area. Convective trends
    will be monitored for the possibility of a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Warm sector convection has slowly deepened with time
    with some intensification of cells as they cross over the stationary
    front in southeastern Kentucky. Updraft intensity so far has been
    muted by a warm layer around 700 mb, but additional destabilization
    and subtle height falls into the evening should result in more
    robust updraft development over the next few hours. Modest
    low-level shear (per local VWPs) should support some tornado
    potential, especially along the surface boundary, but damaging winds
    and hail should be the primary threats with the strongest storms.=20
    With storm motion predominantly to the northeast, storms will
    eventually cross to the cool side of the boundary, resulting in hail
    being the primary threat and eventual weakening of storms. The
    coverage and intensity of storms will be monitored regarding the
    need for a watch.

    ..Jirak/Thompson.. 04/04/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-5GGB_jrLy_IaYawyNc7Yx2xmONOivLzVIVpQ3PGOOguR-VxXxJxPy0yatGmLszsjTABwrVsR= 5BdBWudJp8kgvm6M6o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...

    LAT...LON 37248698 37718627 37888512 37818426 37738321 37458279
    36968283 36528334 36298384 36118467 36038531 36018635
    36118697 36148701 36438723 37248698=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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