ACUS11 KWNS 050637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050636=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-050830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...parts of s cntrl TX though s cntrl OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121...

Valid 050636Z - 050830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for storms capable of producing severe hail
continues, particularly to the west and northwest of the San Antonio
vicinity. Farther north, into the Red River Valley, this threat is
expected to lessen with time as storms continue to consolidate.=20
Potential for activity to produce strong surface gusts appears low,
and not likely to increase, but this remains a bit more uncertain.=20
Trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of an
additional severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Cold surface air remains entrenched along and north of
a stalled surface front across the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, northwest of
College Station, but south of Austin, into areas south of Del Rio.=20
Although this cold air, where convection has been increasing,
appears deeper than last night, elevated "loaded gun" type profiles
have lingered above the stable near-surface environment.

However, large-scale forcing for ascent and cooling aloft associated
with another short wave perturbation overspreading the Texas South
Plains is beginning overturn this environment. Convection is
becoming increasingly widespread west/northwest of Hondo TX into the
Red River Valley, where one intense cell has been approaching the
Wichita Falls area.

A corridor of enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection to the
west through northwest of San Antonio still seems to offer the most
prolonged period of continuing discrete storm development through
the early morning hours. Otherwise, as convection farther to the
west and north continues to trend less discrete, the potential for
severe hail is expected to lessen with time.=20=20

The potential for the development of gravity wave surface pressure perturbations posing increasing potential for strong surface gusts
remains unclear. Given the depth of surface-based cold air, this
still seems low, but it might not be completely negligible.

..Kerr.. 04/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_FLuci1H6UjZk-Bfi4M9NuDFagg_xr_4-k5P9VKf4CYno79UmlBwIo9qxCpVBYKPkye2mocae= W3dwwPcR2COodhlF5E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 33689920 34699797 34289611 31239712 29829855 28989962
29520084 30180065 31550011 32469953 33689920=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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