AWUS01 KWNH 212109
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-220110-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0155
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
508 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Areas affected...southern MS into southeastern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212107Z - 220110Z

Summary...Training/backbuilding cells will continue a flash flood
threat for portions of southeastern LA into southern MS through
01Z. Localized high rainfall rates in excess of 3 in/hr will be
possible.

Discussion...Visible satellite and regional radar imagery at 2045Z
showed scattered thunderstorms extending from south-central MS
into southeastern LA, with low level moisture feeding an unstable
(1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and moist (1.5 to 1.7 inch PWATs) airmass
into the region via southerly 10-15 kt 925-850 mb winds. Given
similarly oriented and slightly weaker deeper layer steering flow,
elements of training and backbuilding have been observed near
downtown New Orleans and the I-10 corridor to the west. Several
reports of rainfall rates exceeding 1 inch in 15 minutes and 3
inches per hour have been observed in this area of LA.

Aloft, initiation was augmented by lift ahead of a subtle
shortwave aloft over the western Gulf and an upper level jet max
crossing northern Mexico and southern TX, with divergence and
diffluence focused over the lower MS Valley. Similar broader scale
flow and ascent will remain in place over the next few hours with
continued potential for training/backbuilding existing across a
wider region than just the New Orleans metro, though coverage of
very high rainfall rates may be limited in scope.

While flash flooding is ongoing across portions of southeastern
LA, some uncertainty exists with the longevity of cells over the
New Orleans metro given the potential for exhausting of
instability. The development of additional flash flood producing
rainfall across other locations is also a bit uncertain. While the
setup favors rainfall rates over 3 in/hr expanding to the west and
north of New Orleans, high flash flood guidance of 3 to 4+ inches
per hour is in place for southern portions of the lower MS Valley
so any additional flash flooding may be limited to urban locations
where infiltration of water will be slowed.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8G6OZzvNq_ldcFlbDDjLfH4OGZv-aEDF8ByEBpIae-8YgYwJz-7j091BHtc47XqD7DcW= 4Bq_34cWEAIsE-a7Fjgu76A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 32959013 32958936 32668890 31998885 30738906=20
29918927 29439021 29599150 29899210 30629233=20
31419172 32239112=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 220011
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-220530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0156
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Areas affected...northeastern LA into central MS/AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220009Z - 220530Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible over the next
3-5 hours from northeastern LA into central MS and central AL.
Potential will exist for training and rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr
with totals up to 5 inches, although coverage of these higher
rainfall totals should be quite limited if they do occur.

DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms were ongoing from
the central LA/MS border into central MS and western AL at 00Z,
near and south of a quasi-stationary front. SPC mesoanalysis data
from 23Z showed MLCAPE across the region was 1000-1500 J/kg with
1.5 to 1.8 inches of precipitable water. Water vapor imagery
showed a shortwave over northern LA, beginning to advance
northeastward into MS, and recent cooling of cloud tops near
Natchez, MS may be a result of ascent ahead of the advancing
shortwave.

Farther east, existing convection along the MS/AL border has
produced a rain-cooled boundary within the warm sector of the
stationary front and subtle enhancement of 925-850 mb winds ahead
of the shortwave are forecast through 03Z which should support
increased overrunning of the front and rain-cooled outflow
boundary. Per radar imagery, mean storm motions were off toward
the northeast at 10 to 20 kt (locally higher), quasi-parallel to
initiating boundaries which could promote some training and brief
backbuilding of storms over the next few hours. Favorably
diffluent flow aloft was, and will continue to be, in place within
the broad left-exit region of a jet max positioned over
south-central TX, which should aid with lift across the lower MS
Valley and just downstream.

While the environment is moist, diurnal cooling and convective
overturning will contribute to some loss in instability overnight,
which means coverage of convection may be near its max at the
present time across the broader LA/MS?AL region. Nonetheless, some
flash flood threat will continue into the first half of the
overnight with rates of 2-3 in/hr easily attainable within the
favorable environment with potential for additional development.
However, limited coverage of these higher rates and generally high
flash flood guidance for the region should limit the areal extent
of any flash flooding that might develop.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-2JeLoNx706_syp8m3NMuRmrtoFgkj1r70crNPp-wAC4r7VpCeruDXQi5Cy68u-7Gj4G= 71LaZa1oTNAnsR-m16lWLkA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34028735 33748629 32798640 31858799 31458898=20
30729009 30769152 31229190 31999192 32839120=20
33508968=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221159
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-221800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0157
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
758 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of north-central AL and northeast MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221200Z - 221800Z

Summary...Additional scattered totals of 2-4" are likely and may
overlap accumulations of 2-3" from early this morning/overnight.
Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Convection has been percolating over the past several
hours over northwestern AL into far northeast MS, in the vicinity
of a weak, stalling surface front and low pressure. While not
overly impressive synoptically, a weak shortwave aloft is noted
with an associated 50-60 kt (mini) jet streak, providing just
enough divergence aloft to support sustained convection (with 0-6
km shear of only about ~20 kts). Meanwhile, the low-levels are
becoming increasingly supportive of sustaining convection as well,
as weak 925-850 mb moisture transport has prevented convection
from becoming outflow dominate with 3-hr change in ML CAPE of
50-150 J/kg (resulting in current ML CAPE of 250-750 J/kg).
Precipitable water of 1.5" (above the 90th percentile, per BMX
sounding climatology) has supported occasional rainfall rates to
1.0-1.5"/hr (per MRMS estimates, as the peak rainfall rates have
occurred in observation sparse areas).

Going forward, there's a good chance that some of the recent
trends of backbuilding convection will continue, as upwind
propagation vectors in the vicinity of the convection are 5 kts or
less (taking into account the mean storm flow and opposite flow of
the 850 mb jet). In addition, storm motions are also relatively
slow (10-15 kts), so the combination of backbuilding and
appreciable individual cell residence time may occasionally
support hourly rates/totals on the order of 2-3"/hr. Overall the
00z/06z CAMs are struggling with the depiction of convection in
the region, though the 00z FV3 is an outlier in depicting 2-4"
totals through 15-18z (though this may be displaced too far
south). More recent HRRR runs (since 06z) are doing a better job
depicting convection in the correct location, though still
probably a bit too weak given the trends (only showing highly
isolated totals of 2"+). Thinking additional scattered totals of
2-4" are likely through 18z, and much of this could occur over
areas that have already seen 2-3" this morning. Given that the
realization of any flash flooding is dependent on localized
training of convection with overall weak forcing and relatively
high uncertainty, isolated to scattered flash flooding is
considered possible.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!97Lv8b8STAMVV_JHxr01esYhoO9LORUL1A8q8z52-EZzkGZOXizU2p6BlJVGlNy2Wc8d= AbwTHczKTG5GoT7HJFE34Mo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35158589 34028607 33268695 32578762 32408843=20
32518937 33068950 33568943 34238915 34708760=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 022245
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-030400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0106
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
644 PM EDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...ArkLaTex into mid-MS Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 022244Z - 030400Z

SUMMARY...There are growing concerns for an axis of heavy
rain/flash flooding to develop from near the ArkLaTex into western
TN/KY through 04Z. Peak rain rates of 2-3 in/hr will be likely
within axes of training, most likely across AR to the MS River.

DISCUSSION...22Z surface radar imagery and surface observations
depicted an elongated axis of thunderstorms stretching from
southwestern IL into southwestern AR. A cold front/outflow
boundary combination was located at the leading edge of the
thunderstorms and visible satellite/radar imagery showed cloud
streets and developing thunderstorms feeding into AR from the
south within 50-60 kt of flow at 850 mb (per area VAD wind plots).
The environment ahead of the cold front was moderately unstable
and very moist with MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000+ J/kg and PWATs of 1.7
to 1.9 inches per a special 20Z SHV sounding and 22Z SPC
mesoanalysis data.

Due to a lack of height falls over the Mid-South, south of an
advancing mid-level shortwave over the upper MS Valley, the
outflow (effective cold front) is forecast to steadily advance
eastward into the lower OH Valley over the next 3-6 hours, while
the southern end of the boundary stalls across the ArkLaTex. The
resultant orientation should align with the mean steering flow
from SW to NE. As robust low level moisture transport and
pre-frontal cells intersect the boundary, coverage of
thunderstorms should increase from near the ArkLaTex into eastern
AR and eventually into western TN/KY over the next several hours.
Areas of training will have the potential to produce 2-3 in/hr
rainfall rates and depending on the persistence of training over
any given location, some higher end rainfall totals (4+ inches)
could materialize.

Flash flooding appears likely within this setup and should overlap
of training occur with any urban centers, locally significant
flash flooding could occur.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!87rQbXWChLFISaUYEuig2aBZ3ZgIUeq0zAQazBHlEiii96a4XxPPlpOvQbUGmz7zZ6Oo= rMhpSP5l5YOPngyrx6T2YS4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37438778 37018735 35378873 34359049 33259241=20
32659396 32699536 33329565 33769524 34659337=20
35029237 36189057 36958900=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030000
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-030555-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0107
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
759 PM EDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...Lower OH Valley into IN, western OH into
southeastern MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022358Z - 030555Z

SUMMARY...Areas of training are expected to shift into much of IN
and portions of southeastern MI/western OH through 06Z. Rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible within areas of training and
flash flooding will be possible. However, by 06Z or so, rainfall
intensity is expected to decrease as instability lowers,
especially for northern locations.

DISCUSSION...2330Z radar imagery showed that a pre-frontal axis of
convection extended from far southwestern MI into southeastern MO,
with embedded mesoscale vortices/bowing segments, but with an
overall movement toward the east. The environment along and ahead
of the elongated line of thunderstorms contained 500 to 1500+ J/kg
MLCAPE and anomalous PWATs at or above the climatological max for
early April via SPC sounding climatology. In addition to
increasing upper jet induced divergence aloft, continued low level
moisture advection within 50-60 kt of 850 mb flow has allowed
instability to increase over the past few hours, and as a result,
convective organization has increased over eastern IL into
northwestern IN since 21Z/22Z. There have been occasional
instances of training where line orientation has matched the mean
steering flow, supporting hourly rainfall of 1.0 to 1.5 inches
over IL into northwestern IN.

Recent runs of the RAP suggest that CAPE values over IL/IN are
near their peak for the evening/night and over the next several
hours, a general downward trend in CAPE is expected with the onset
of nocturnal cooling, not including minor increases in instability
over southeastern MI and western OH due to low level moisture
advection. As the cold front/outflow boundary continues to advance
east, the ongoing axis of thunderstorms will follow with a general
progressive movement but there will be embedded areas of training
as different embedded speeds within the line setup short term
areas of training. The threat for short term training will
translate into much of IN and portions of southeastern MI and
western OH over the next few hours, but with an expectation for
weakening rainfall intensity toward 06Z as instability fades.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_666p51CeHBYO_OG0vfKqJg8_rFcx8AyZ2eiQYsHo8c_id_oAF9WnokNVf5uc7c8A4DU= cgeQjlQPWg9wlPvkGsvMGuE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...
LOT...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 42838266 42458251 41798282 41458233 39988349=20
38758468 38008569 37288720 37308865 38198878=20
40268733 41768595 42718414=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030535
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-031130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0108
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
133 AM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Mid-South into the TN Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030530Z - 031130Z

Summary...Continued scattered to numerous flash flooding with
rebuilding and backbuilding convection resulting in additional
2-5" localized totals.

Discussion...A large line of thunderstorms (QLCS) extends from the
Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley to the Ark-La-Tex, and the segment
of the line across West/Middle TN into north MS continues to stall
with favorable conditions for backbuilding in the near term.
Ongoing deep convection continues to produce rainfall rates of up
to 1-2"/hr with ample upper-level divergence in the vicinity of
the right-entrance region of a large upper-level jet streak. The
mesoscale environment from north MS to West/Middle TN is
characterized by SB CAPE of 750-1500 J/kg, precipitable water
values of 1.3-1.7 inches (near the max moving average, per BNA
sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear of 55-65 kts. With
the stalling of the QLCS in this extraordinary environment, given
a 40-50 kt low-level jet ushering in continued strong moisture
transport and resulting deep layer moisture flux convergence,
renewed convection with heavy rainfall is expected.

Looking at a consensus of the latest hi-res models, an additional
2-5" of rainfall appears likely across portions of north MS into
West/Middle TN. While the bulk of this rainfall is expected over
areas that have received little to no rainfall so far, some
portions of West TN have already received some heavy rainfall (up
to 1-3"). Given the current presentation of radar (with impress
discrete cell signatures reforming in the MS Delta), models may be underestimating the intensity and persistence of cells which may
backbuild farther north into northeast AR and far West TN.
Continued scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding are
likely, and some flooding may become significant in urban areas
where cells effectively backbuild.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7hfyUf4n7PFOgilrSP4UMqtOuH9yF3kHFRx1lsp8kbmFEgNWua5KgA8xXCiFYxDuv6fr= SP0Ey46nQBq4Cun8RgiQklE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JAN...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37018687 36798638 36438652 36098678 35818667=20
35608671 35348709 35048751 34998757 34938769=20
34668816 34318892 34028976 33959022 33879069=20
34039183 34269269 34499294 34759274 35139219=20
35379119 35519058 35658999 35898946 36218884=20
36468816 36868754=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031107
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-031705-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0109
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
706 AM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031105Z - 031705Z

SUMMARY...Additional repeating rounds of heavy showers and
thunderstorms going through midday will continue to favor a
regional threat of flash flooding across the Mid-South.

DISCUSSION...Early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows an
axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms tending to repeat/train
over the same locations across portions of the Mid-South as a
moist and unstable airmass continues to lift north from the Gulf
Coast region.

A moderately buoyant airmass is noted in particular from southeast
AR through northern MS and into a small portion of middle TN with
MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Areas off to the northeast
here going up into southeast KY are more stable by comparison with
CAPE values generally under 1000 J/kg. Area VWP data though shows
an impressive southerly low-level jet reaching on the order of 40
to 50+ kts and this is yielding sustainably strong moisture
transport.

The combination of this moisture and instability in conjunction
with a well-defined convectively enhanced surface boundary and
divergent flow aloft should favor sustainable clusters of
convection this morning which will tend to be aligned with the
deeper layer mean flow and thus will promote convective cells repeating/training over the same area.

The thermodynamic environment will promote rainfall rates with the
stronger convective cores reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour and
especially considering the level of shear (effective bulk shear of
50+ kts) which will favor pockets of strong and organized
updrafts. The PWs are generally on the order of 1.5 to 1.6 and
this will support these high rainfall rates as well and especially
with the strength of the low-level jet.

Additional rainfall totals going through midday should reach on
the order of 2 to 4 inches with isolated heavier amounts possible.
The heaviest of these rains this morning should tend to be over
central and eastern AR through northwest MS and the western half
of TN where there is better pooling of instability. Flash flooding
is already occurring over many of these areas, and additional
flash flooding is expected through midday.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Glh58uNZgPDObmYUVJtlqpyrRk27cJF0CuE5_ucCZFEdDUnIaSexig1NfcpKBjt7cIP= OCeUkKIElIczbu5AUaaK_5U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37758373 36908347 35968525 35448668 34688896=20
34119130 34059300 35039302 36139050 36798830=20
37608587=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031150
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-031748-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0110
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
749 AM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Northern TX...Southeast OK...Western/Central AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031148Z - 031748Z

SUMMARY...Expanding clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
wil tend to further organize this morning and should favor at
least some scattered areas of flash flooding, including an urban
flash flood concern.

DISCUSSION...A deep layer trough over the Four Corners region
continues to channel a strong upper-level jet along with embedded
vort energy out across the southern Plains and toward the broader
lower MS Valley region. This energy is interacting this morning
with a moist and unstable southerly low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts
across areas of northern TX and southeast OK which is yielding
several clusters of organized and very cold-topped convective
clusters.

A substantial amount of the convection is elevated in nature to
the north of a quasi-stationary front, and generally rooted within
a corridor of MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg. However, notably
higher instability parameters are seen farther south and east into
the warm sector south of the front. This instability coupled with
the moist low-level jet and strong vertical shear is promoting
high rainfall rates and especially with several severe-mode
supercell structures that are evolving across northern TX to the
west of the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area and also locally
across southeast OK.

Strong upper-level jet energy crossing the southern Plains over
the next several hours will provide an expansive area of deeper
layer ascent and shear that will combine with the favorable
thermodynamic environment for sustinable and well-organized
convective clusters. Heavy rainfall is expected locally, and the
rainfall rates are expected to reach 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour with
the stronger cells.

Some occasional cell-merger activity and localized cell-training
will be possible, and rainfall totals going through midday may
reach an additional 3 to 4+ inches. These rains will be falling
locally on some areas that saw heavy rain yesterday including
parts of northeast TX, southeast OK and western/central AR.
Therefore, with relatively moist antecedent conditions in place
here and additional rains likely to arrive this morning, some
scattered areas of flash flooding are generally likely. Adjacent
areas of northern TX are a bit more conditionl with the flash
flood threat, but there will be concern for urban flooding impacts
should these stronger storms impact some of the larger
metropolitan areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4Y8GZBLcveXpj8IEbv24DJyE-o_wtGlRTDkTfvTgVtJfauzaS1mqXvY3klqhro2a1RMn= DcoHkf2cDNtb4QNuuUhcQM0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35929347 35839213 34859170 34129250 33339421=20
32719611 32439748 32389891 33269930 34209824=20
35129607=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031709
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-032307-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0111
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
108 PM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Mid-South into the OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031707Z - 032307Z

SUMMARY...There will be increasing concerns through the afternoon
and early evening hours for increasingly significant and
life-threatening flash flooding from repeating rounds of heavy
showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...The early afternoon GOES-E IR satellite imagery in
conjunction with radar shows an extensive axis of heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity becoming a bit better organized and aligned
in a southwest to northeast fashion from central AR northeastward
through western TN and into areas of southern KY.

Compared to earlier this morning, the overall convective
orientation has been tending to gain some latitude as subtle
mid-level height rises over the Southeast U.S. becomes more
apparent and fosters a stronger poleward transport of warm air
advection and moisture transport ahead of the deeper layer
troughing over the central and southern Rockies. The airmass south
of a well-defined frontal boundary over the Mid-South has become
moderate to strongly unstable with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500
J/kg and remains quite moist with a southerly low-level jet of 30
to 40+ kts. The latest CIRA-ALPW data shows a substantial pooling
of moisture in the SFC/700mb layer with notably strong
concentrations noted from southern AR through northern MS.

The concern going through the afternoon and early evening hours
will be the gradual expansion and organized nature of heavy shower
and thunderstorm activity over areas that have already seen heavy
rainfall and flash flooding over the last 12 to 24 hours.
Streamflows across the region continue to increase and with
locally saturated soil conditions in place, the additional
rainfall signal that is coming out of the 12Z HREF guidance
suggests a growing concern for high-impact flash flooding.

Rainfall rates are expected to increase to as much as 1.5 to 2.5
inches/hour with the stronger storms, and especially over areas of central/eastern AR, northwest MS, and western TN where the
instability nosing over the aforementioned front is a bit
stronger. By early this evening, some additional rainfall totals
of as much as 3 to 5 inches will be possible. Flash flooding is
already ongoing across areas of western and middle TN, and with
the additional rains, significant and life-threatening impacts are
expected to gradually occur.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5FwRbRnet63ia_JlOGnqsGOLdEjyOfjYWp1aFGTgiuvIqEiCJMBaGlzpwCdf1sEYYhMj= yIKTGWvfNjmPEzMiRKRBhZM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JAN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...MRX...OHX...
PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38458369 37868287 37078375 36028580 34928810=20
34019061 34069213 34889248 35529183 36219041=20
37058855 38158573=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031802
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-040000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0112
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
201 PM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Arklatex into the Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031800Z - 040000Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms should tend to expand in
coverage this afternoon and become locally concentrated over parts
of the Arklatex region and into the adjacent areas of the
Mid-South. Areas of flash flooding are likely, and locally
significant impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...A deep layer trough over the Four Corners region
continues to channel a strong upper-level jet along with embedded
vort energy out across the southern Plains and toward the broader
lower MS Valley region. Early morning convective clusters have
advanced well off to the east-northeast, but the upstream energy
this afternoon will be continuing to interact with a moist and
increasingly unstable airmass pooled across eastern TX and through
the lower MS Valley in close proximity to a frontal zone. The
result will be redeveloping and expanding coverage of heavy
showers and thunderstorms.

The latest surface analysis shows a wave of low pressure lifting
through northeast TX which will be gradually lifting off to the
east-northeast over the next several hours along the
aforementioned front. A southerly low-level jet of 40 to 50 kts
will be in place ahead of this low center, and there will be a
corridor of strong low-level moisture convergence that will
facilitate upscale growth of convection that will likely become
locally concentrated and focused by later this afternoon. Strong
instability near and south of the front with MLCAPE values of 2000
to 3000 J/kg and rather strong shear parameters will also be key
ingredients for organized convection.

Recent runs of the HRRR guidance along with the 12Z NSSL-MPAS
guidance suggests areas of far northeast TX and southern AR will
tend to be the primary focus for heavy rainfall going through
early this evening, with convection potentially also training over
the same area. Rainfall rates with the stronger storms may reach
as high as 2.5 inches/hour. Some of these rains though will also
be advancing into downstream areas of the Mid-South currently
covered by MPD #111.

Some additional storm totals by early this evening may reach as
high as 3 to 5 inches, and especially where any cell-training
occurs. Given the wet antecedent conditions overall and additional
totals, flash flooding is likely, and there may be some locally
significant impacts which will include an enhanced urban flash
flood concern.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4PRh506P9DTJKKPFHI7XH21kt5Ujeh97P0njN6oEddzwS6cqmp4yJ2kzmRwufLPkz4MB= GVkowHWQQ63FoIJMLiIJ6U0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35179115 34908998 34408966 33959007 33539089=20
33129221 32779322 32199434 32069546 32639606=20
33479549 34449410 35039273=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032008
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-040105-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0113
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 PM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...upper OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032006Z - 040105Z

SUMMARY...Repeating and brief training of cells could result in
localized flash flooding across far eastern KY into WV and far
southern OH over the next few hours. Additional rainfall of 1-2
inches will be possible through 01Z, falling atop 1-2 inches of
rain which fell over the past 12 hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery and cooling cloud tops on GOES
East infrared imagery has shown an increase in rainfall intensity
across eastern KY over the past 2 hours, attributed to increasing
instability. Mostly clear skies located south of an outflow
boundary (located from south of SME, east-northeastward into
south-central WV between CRW and BKW) have allowed MLCAPE to
increase into the 500 to 1000+ J/kg range over southeastern KY as
roughly 30 kt of southwesterly 850 mb flow overruns the boundary.
Average cell motions have been fast with ~40 kt from the WSW,
limiting rainfall over any given location, but that rainfall has
been intense with 0.3 to 0.5 inches in 15 minutes observed.

A flash flood concern may expand eastward into WV through the
early evening as instability increases into the southern half of
WV, through the continued advection of low level moisture and at
least brief additional heating under clearing skies in southern
WV. Some backing of low level flow is forecast by the RAP and as
moist/unstable air continues to overrun the rain-cooled boundary,
additional storms are expected to form upstream in KY and advance
downstream into WV. There will likely be some repeating cells and
perhaps some brief training although uncertainty remains on the
degree of training into the evening. Given 1 to 2 inches of rain
which impacted western and central WV over the past 12 hours, an
inch or two of additional rainfall through 01Z may result in some
localized flash flooding atop sensitive grounds.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!83ODIoNtyyHDZpeHeYyS4PH3dAxGa2NLQBVuHdICwwSWc5hGEYJouWjLQKpTcM_W6foM= k4ITTYwFn1cMTMx5pmBomgc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39448128 39378022 38597991 38048112 37668250=20
37778307 38418362 38918296=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032325
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-040500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0114
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
725 PM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...lower/middle MS Valley into OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032323Z - 040500Z

SUMMARY...Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over the next 6
hours is expected to continue areas of flash flooding from the
lower/middle MS Valley into the OH River Valley. Peak rainfall
rates of 1 to 1.5 in/hr (locally up to 2 in/hr possible) are
likely at times which will overlap, at least partially, with areas
that have ongoing flooding from heavy rainfall over the past 24
hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 23Z showed scattered
thunderstorms over TN/KY, mostly north of a stationary front
analyzed from northwestern MS into Middle TN and eastern KY. A
greater coverage of thunderstorms was noted back to the west over
AR and southeastern MO, having originated back near the ArkLaTex
around 19Z. It appears the clusters of storms over AR/MO were
located ahead of a subtle low to mid-level shortwave, just nosing
into southwestern AR at 21Z, best identified in LPW imagery in the
850-700 mb and 700-500 mb layers.

The low to mid-level shortwave is likely to track northeastward
within southwest flow, allowing thunderstorms to spread
northeastward from AR/MO into the OH Valley overnight. Southerly
850 mb winds of 40-50 kt are forecast to overspread
western/northern TN into KY as the shortwave feature moves east,
maintaining an overrunning component of the stationary
front/outflow boundary combination over TN/KY. Elements of
training will be possible and sufficient elevated instability will
exist to support rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 in/hr (locally up to 2
in/hr possible) within axes of training that develop.

The result will be an additional 1 to 2 inches (perhaps as high as
3" in isolated spots) through 05Z, resulting in continued areas of
flash flooding. It seems the bulk of the heavy rainfall threat
over the next 6 hours will fall north of the axis of heaviest
rainfall that fell over the past 24 hours, but some overlap along
the northern edges (northwestern TN into western/central KY) will
likely occur. These additional rains will exacerbate ongoing
flooding that is occurring across numerous locations of the MS
Valley into TN and KY.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-GtEasy6cbb83SbUu4XzvZQY7pkhTbBfcCwtm-XuQZgkv6-rsJ_V80CNjmokbsIXabHo= vGakHxy_ruTA3MR3yIHoEPc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG... OHX...PAH...RLX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39558447 39288337 38518236 37998357 37348474=20
36158627 35048842 34839010 34969138 35239235=20
37009071 38108911 39198578=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040019
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-040500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0115
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
818 PM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...ArkLaTex into central/eastern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040014Z - 040500Z

SUMMARY...While near term flash flooding appears likely over the
next 1-2 hours from central to eastern AR, uncertainty remains
back toward the southwest in the vicinity of the ArkLaTex. There
is some potential for thunderstorms to develop in this region and
track northeastward into areas of AR over the next few hours,
reinvigorating a threat for flash flooding across the region.

DISCUSSION...00Z radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms over
central and eastern AR, advancing toward the northeast with little
in the way of redevelopment back to the southwest. The activity
was occurring north of a well-defined stationary front that
extended SW across southern AR into northeastern TX.

Rainfall rates of 1 to perhaps 2 in/hr will remain possible,
maintaining the flash flood threat over central/eastern AR for
another 2 hours or so. This activity is occurring ahead of a low
to mid-level shortwave noted in LPW imagery with drying in the
850-700 mb layer in its wake.

While some weak subsidence is likely occurring in the wake of the
convective activity moving through AR, moderately strong and
uninhibited MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000+ J/kg was estimated just south
of the stationary front over eastern TX into northern LA (via SPC
mesoanalysis data from 00Z). A forcing mechanism is uncertain
however and 850 mb winds are forecast by the RAP to weaken from
their present 30-40 kt to 20-30 kt through 06Z and some weak
subsidence is likely occurring over the region in the wake of the aforementioned shortwave. Nonetheless, the environment is quite
unstable and sufficiently moist to support thunderstorms with
potential for heavy rain.

Should convection initiate in the next 1-2 hours, there will be
potential for rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr, with storm movement
toward the northeast into portions of the region that have been
hit with heavy rain over the past 24-48 hours, possibly reigniting
a threat for flash flooding. However, the threat appears to be
lowering given the near onset of nocturnal cooling at the surface
and lack of visible triggers.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Lj8hPqgQobWkP1sGxNKaXJoXLC7zWfNeY5j7HL6L3yBsXfWTrEGwYazUmurySBCdcEE= Idkgwsda8UFfRyTOmZAk0lg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35219184 35099086 34539046 33079260 32209480=20
32469541 33629469 34659346 35099257=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141916
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-150115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0139
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Areas affected...West Virginia, southern Ohio, northern/eastern
Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141915Z - 150115Z

Summary...Scattered convection will produce areas/spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates at time, posing a risk of isolated flash
flooding through 04Z this evening.

Discussion...Over the past hour, scattered convection has
developed from Bloomington to near Cincinnati. These cells were
on the northeastern extent of an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE and
were also along and just ahead of a surface front that was making
steady eastward progress across the Ohio Valley. Convection was
already oriented parallel to steering flow aloft - with localized
training noted just south of Cincinnati already prompting
MRMS/local radar estimates of 0.75 inch/hr rain rates in a few
spots.

Through the afternoon, convection will mature and increase in
coverage, with supercellular wind profiles, moderate instability,
and continued orientation parallel to mean flow aloft supporting
localized areas of training. Occasional areas of 1 inch/hr rain
rates are expected, which could fall over sensitive areas and
prompt isolated flash flooding. Areawide FFGs are in the 1-1.5
inch/hr range and should be approached on an isolated basis where
the most focused/pronounced training could occur. Convection
should move quickly eastward over the discussion area due to fast
flow aloft, with flash flood potential increasing over West
Virginia from the 22Z/5pm timeframe onward. CAMs also indicate
potential for convective development southwestward along the front
(across Kentucky) that could produce brief/spotty flash flooding
if localized convective training can materialize.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9uU820pM34VCL-hWsHDfNgOYr24p-v7klbH-lAsGpbVIoEL812TyUPBzJXtxwu9aJvVS= beq_Xilin9A0D5ddG5RR_WA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39798072 39207927 38027965 37388120 37008451=20
37258573 37998577 39388566 39748379=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171857
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-180035-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0140
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Areas affected...western IA/MN border into southern MN/western IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171853Z - 180035Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding may develop during the late
afternoon hours from far northwestern IA into southern MN and
western WI. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are expected with brief
training which could allow for some 2 to 3 inch totals through 01Z.

Discussion...18Z surface observations showed a surface low located
over west-central MN near BDH with a cold front trailing
southwestward into NE across the MO River and a warm front
extending south-southeastward in IA. Surface observations over
northwestern IA/southwestern MN have shown a dewpoint rise of ~20
degrees over the past 6 hours, owning to rapid low level moisture
transport via 30-40 kt of 850 mb winds present over IA/MN out
ahead of the cold front. The increase in low level moisture
combined with daytime heating has led to MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg via 18Z SPC mesoanalysis data.

Visible satellite and radar imagery showed convective initiation
has occurred along the warm front in Sibley County with convection
likely to expand in intensity and coverage through the remainder
of the afternoon in the warm sector as the surface low and
attendant cold front advance downstream. Clear skies on visible
imagery and continued low level moisture advection are likely to
increase instability from current values across downstream
locations along the MN/WI border through 00Z. The portion of the
cold front closest to the surface low will track eastward more
quickly than the portion over the MO Valley, which when combined
with pre-frontal convection, may allow for brief training of
storms from SW to NE. With any areas of training, the environment
is supportive of rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr which may allow for
isolated 2-3 inch totals through 01Z. Despite dry antecedent
conditions, flash flood guidance values are only 1-2 inches per
hour and ~1.5 to 2.5 inches in 3 hours. Localized flash flooding
will be possible into the early evening but the greatest threat
will likely be with with any urban overlap of heavy rain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8EAXMFPDTVnqFpID0U66H6YvxOHD5dQ9OQ7EH6Ya7eYjyaKp31gnXj9FuuimB73slG-j= Lt2LqqJ-j4ldryAcNgnX3XM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...DMX...FSD...GRB...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 45939305 45839185 45299052 44738999 44139044=20
43929128 43749264 43239439 43359620 44079631=20
45299515=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190223
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-190821-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0141
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1022 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma through southern/east-central
Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190221Z - 190821Z

Summary...Several instances of flash flooding are possible through
08Z/3am this morning as convective coverage increases along/ahead
of a front through the discussion area.=20

Discussion...Over the past hour, rapid thunderstorm development
has materialized both along and just northwest of a surface cold
front extending from near PVJ/Pauls Valley, OK northeastward to
near Joplin and Springfield, MO. The storms were located in a
steep mid-level lapse rate environment, with ~7C/km H7-H5 rates
and 1.25-1.4 inch PW values supporting strong, quickly evolving
updrafts. The orientation of the initiating front parallel to 50+
kt mean flow aloft was allowing for this initial convection to
train and produce spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates (especially in
northeastern Oklahoma), supporting localized flash flood potential
in the short term.

With time, continued evolution of convection into combinations of lines/clusters and even supercells will allow for areas of
propagation to the right of mean flow. Local rain rates of 1-1.5
inch/hr are expected, which should approach hourly FFG thresholds
(in the 1.5 inch/hr range - lowest in Missouri) over time. The
tendency for storms to grow upscale and propagate eastward may
help to mitigate a larger-scale flash flood risk tonight, although
isolated to scattered instances of runoff are still expected where
convective training is more pronounced. This risk will spread
northeastward into more of Missouri beginning from 03Z onward and
perhaps reach portions of Saint Louis and vicinity in the 07-10Z
timeframe.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6ZUX32AyGcovsmm4U9pjKN1-2GU2Gd03b-N7foR5LYecVDm7Oo_n8BqPMBEnxxOfaPgY= mB5W8M_hGJ_uLhxQOafwATg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39079119 38529009 37659028 35739330 34069712=20
34359777 35499688 36779552 38229352=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190826
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-191225-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0142
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
426 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...northeastern Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas, far
southern Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190825Z - 191225Z

Summary...Areas of 1-3 inches of rainfall have occurred, with
heaviest totals estimated near Rogers, AR. Upstream thunderstorm
activity should lead to a continued, but localized flash flood
threat for the next few hours.

Discussion...Training thunderstorms have produced localized areas
of 1-3 inches of rainfall along an an axis from just south of
Muskogee, OK to just west of Branson, MO since 05Z. The heaviest
totals within this axis have fallen near Rogers/Springdale, AR per
MRMS estimates. Moderate MRMS Flash responses are suggestive of
runoff issue in a few areas and also highlights the sensitivity of
local ground conditions.

Recent radar mosaic imagery suggests that additional rainfall will
occur across this axis over the next 2-4 hours or so. A very
loosely organized convective complex extends from Muskogee
east-northeastward through Carroll County, AR that is oriented
favorably for training/repeating and local rain rates of 1
inches/hr at times. Additionally, newer convection has
materialized near Oklahoma City that should migrate toward the
discussion area by around 11Z at the earliest. A break in
convective activity exists between these storms and the
aforementioned Muskogee/Carroll MCS, however, which suggests that
there may be a brief temporal window for excessive runoff to
subside some before heavy rainfall re-enters the area. Flash
flooding remains possible in this regime through at least 12Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6TGfurpS73GyPmaSM3oivBB60scu1N8bo8SAA19Q4-s1AiZOJvJy0t0-4KKSFEOTVkq8= nBe67AtSv46Wcu30CNG6Uwg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37329207 37069125 36719136 36019221 35229397=20
35139538 35779561 36359513 36909374=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190921
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-191319-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0143
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
520 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...portions of north/central Texas, far southern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190919Z - 191319Z

Summary...A linear convective complex may slow its forward speed
this morning, prompting an increase in rain rates and a
conditional flash flood threat.

Discussion...Convection initially over west Texas has grown
upscale into a lengthy linear complex extending from Mineral Wells
to Brady. This complex continues to remain strong due to its
organization (mature cold pool), steep lapse rates aloft
(exceeding 7.5C/km), 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and strong low-level flow
within the pre-convective environment. The orientation of the
complex was parallel to southwesterly flow aloft, although
eastward propagation has held rain rates in check (generally less
than 1-1.5 inches/hr) so far this morning.

Some concern exists, however, that this convective band may slow
its forward progress this morning. Mid/upper troughing continues
to deepen across Arizona, with falling geopotential heights across
the discussion area along with a very slight backing of flow
aloft. The right-ward propagation of the complex was also
resulting in movement away from stronger mid/upper forcing for
ascent. This slowing trend is hinted at in some CAMs, although
uncertainty exists due to poor handling of cold pool/mesoscale
dynamics.

Should this slowing trend commence, rain rates beneath the MCS
should increase and prompt isolated flash flood potential.=20
Underlying FFGs are quite high though (>2.5 inch/hr) with dry
soils noted per NASA Sport soil moisture data. Isolated flash
potential would persist for as long as the MCS maintains its
intensity. Impacts around the Dallas/Fort Worth metro area cannot
be completely ruled out.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-5fDOUB7fxm-8kjfYYDzTHcZ4biXBnOgwRuHf_p73-guwmPNv9t9CXJ61YpsYs5YARw5= NcPquMZtvDOVgItB8eJiTiY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34069677 33899552 32429590 31409764 31009912=20
31229966 31999933 32669877 33789763=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191137
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-191700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0144
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
737 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...Northwest AR...Southwest MO....Far Eastern OK....

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 191135Z - 191700Z

SUMMARY...Another round of strong thunderstorms crossing recently saturated/flooded grounds increasing the potential for flash
flooding through early morning.

DISCUSSION...10z Surface analysis depicts a complex analysis with
old outflow boundaries/mixed air with exiting meso-high across MO
into NE OK. To add to the complexity, a sharpening upper-level
right jet entrance region is lifting north across central OK into
E OK/W KS resulting in falling pressures downstream across SW MO
backing low level flow and increasing deep layer moisture flux
convergence. This shortwave DPVA/Upper-level divergence ascent
pattern is noted well in the GOES-E WV suite, with numerous
overshooting cooling tops breaking through the cirrus canopy
across E OK starting to encroach on SW MO/NW AR. CIRA LPW backed
up by RAP analysis denotes a slug of enhanced deep layer moisture
up to 1.75", along and downstream of the shortwave to increasing
rainfall production/efficiency over the next few hours. Early
morning convection limiting factor is typically lack of
instability; however, a well of mid 70s Temps over mid to upper
60s Tds and solid lapse rates does support along stream
instability with SBACAPEs of 1000-1500 J/kg from SE OK to
W-central AR, likely to be advected northward across the old
outflow boundary/cold front. The source is not very large and may
limit coverage and/or duration of convective activity but should
be sufficient to support 1.5-2"/hr rates.

The growing concern is the overlap/intersection with already
saturated/flooded ground conditions across NW AR and so potential
of an additional 2-3" (mainly in less than 1-1.5hrs) will likely
result in flash flooding conditions in a few spots, but the
expansion of the area/source of instability will allow for
southward and eastward propagation an may expand the areal
coverage for flash flooding over the coming hours. Further
diurnal stabilization toward late morning will likely reduce
intensity with loss/usage of remaining unstable air and
coverage/intensity should decrease toward 16-17z and into
south-central MO/northeast AR.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5wjEgPOcun6IIk5wKgeLwfqk7XzBAg9KVnLkwOe46TajoRX8scNBdzJ3MuyiN9u3qteg= 7faW3qEvrHpzFTMtHtikkuY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37189238 37069184 36809132 36249113 35729134=20
35189203 34799318 34609408 34529487 34579543=20
34979555 35969508 36699454 37099363=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191222
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-191720-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0145
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
822 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...Southern IL...Southern IND...Adj Portions of
Northwest KY...Ext Southwest OH...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191220Z - 191720Z

SUMMARY...Limited instability, but favorable repeat/training,
solid moisture and fairly saturated soils pose a possible widely
scattered flash flooding incident or two through morning.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR denotes a line of broken convective
cells with a pair of stronger wave like convective elements
crossing Southern IL and into Southern IND, along the leading edge
of sagging cold front from stronger exiting wave across the
central Great Lakes into Ontario. This orientation is aligning
with deeper layer unidirectional steering flow along a
sharp/dominant ridge over the Southeast. Deep layer moisture
steaks along this boundary with total PWats up to 1.5", mainly
below 700mb. While RAP/HRRR suggests waning/limited instability,
there is solid remaining low level heating, with weak nearly
moist-adiabatic lapse rates but enough to eek out about 500 J/kg
enough to main ongoing convection. Additionally, 12z surface
analysis notes stronger below boundary layer convergence
particularly upstream with push of dying MCV/MCS energy across IL
increasing surface convergence from weak confluence (30 degrees)
further downstream to nearly opposition across S IL with weak
surface wave near MDH/HSB. As such, stronger cells will likely
continue to support .5-.75" in 15-30 minutes as noted by
observations. This generally matches the 15-minute totals from
the HRRR which has been fairly good in timing/orientation with the
past few runs.

The length of the confluence/convergence with the weak but
sufficient instability may allow for repeating/training elements
over the next few hours to support some localized spots of 1-1.5"
totals. Very slow southward sag of the boundary/training zone
will start to cross the strong soil saturation gradient across the
region where even with a bit of time to dry out, soil saturation
values remain near 60-70% in the upper 40cm; so with quick burst
of .5"/15 mins, with some maintained moderate shower activity
afterward. FFG values are 1.5"/hr which may suggest sub-hourly
totals may be nearing a critical value especially if they have
rebounded too quickly given recent high flooding. As such,
reduced infiltration is considered possible for a widely scattered
incident or two of flash flooding/ponding conditions particularly
in urban areas and near prone flashy bluffs.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_pDnkmHo8fKRUap2zK478Y41e5JW4ZCdsWNZ2uze10Tota0giqvb15pXR3vnr5HN-vfq= maHZgvuHsAqTOxGWiik0GdI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39838459 39378422 38968445 38188600 37468776=20
37158868 37308932 37888931 38578835 38918761=20
39248702 39618608 39818537=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040520
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-041115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0116
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
119 AM EDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...Mid-South to the OH/TN Valleys

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040515Z - 041115Z

Summary...Continued heavy rainfall with rates up to 1.5"/hr will
lead to additional 6-hour totals of 2-5". Scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...Clusters of convection continue to slowly backbuild
across portions of the Lower MS Valley, mainly over the Ozarks and
Delta of AR, arcing northeastward into the OH/TN Valleys with the
deep layer flow. A broad low-level jet (35-55 kts at 850 mb) is
providing seemingly unending strong moisture transport into a
narrow, clearly defined axis of overrunning/frontogenesis (also
ideally in the right-entrance region of a 140+ kt jet streak over
southeastern Canada). The mesoscale environment is characterized
by MU CAPE of 250-1000 J/kg, precipitable water values of 1.3-1.6
inches (near the max moving average, per BNA sounding
climatology), and deep layer (0-6 km) shear of 60-80 kts.

Northeasterly deep layer flow will support a relatively narrow
axis of repeating heavy rainfall over the next 6 hours, with a
consensus of hi-res CAMs (00z HREF suite) suggesting additional
localized totals of 2-4" (with rates generally capped at 1.5"/hr
due to instability being somewhat limited). This heavy rainfall is
expected to occur over areas that have already seen as much as
3-7" of rainfall over the past 24 hours (per NSSL estimates).
Given all of the recent heavy rainfall, it will not take much
additional rainfall to cause continued or renewed flooding, as
Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) is indicated to be 1.0" or less for the
bulk of the region. With hi-res models (00z HREF) indicating
relatively high odds for localized 2" exceedance (40-km
neighborhood probabilities of 20-50%), scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding are considered likely. Should these
2-5" streaks of rainfall occur over particularly sensitive
terrain, flooding may be locally significant.=20=20

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ulu3UvCykHbl4Zvh12J1sW7Atyp4-CZTiRU-DkPzrKP4NQITkS6py9dd7Ph0NKyah6e= ZQh6mbE_Ckb4gkxGZOiHvS0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39248266 39138199 38748173 38188196 37928239=20
37428322 36898454 36678539 36368647 35848783=20
35308941 35209041 35709107 36908981 37788809=20
38428664 38758553 38998447 39118361=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040529
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-041115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0116...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
128 AM EDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Corrected for DISCUSSION ERROR

Areas affected...Mid-South to the OH/TN Valleys

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040515Z - 041115Z

Summary...Continued heavy rainfall with rates up to 1.5"/hr will
lead to additional 6-hour totals of 2-5". Scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...Clusters of convection continue to slowly backbuild
across portions of the Lower MS Valley, mainly over the Ozarks and
Delta of AR, arcing northeastward into the OH/TN Valleys with the
deep layer flow. A broad low-level jet (35-55 kts at 850 mb) is
providing seemingly unending strong moisture transport into a
narrow, clearly defined axis of overrunning/frontogenesis (also
ideally in the right-entrance region of a 140+ kt jet streak over
southeastern Canada). The mesoscale environment is characterized
by MU CAPE of 250-1000 J/kg, precipitable water values of 1.3-1.6
inches (near the max moving average, per BNA sounding
climatology), and deep layer (0-6 km) shear of 60-80 kts.

Northeasterly-directed deep layer flow will support a relatively
narrow axis of repeating heavy rainfall over the next 6 hours,
with a consensus of hi-res CAMs (00z HREF suite) suggesting
additional localized totals of 2-4" (with rates generally capped
at 1.5"/hr due to instability being somewhat limited). This heavy
rainfall is expected to occur over areas that have already seen as
much as 3-7" of rainfall over the past 24 hours (per NSSL
estimates). Given all of the recent heavy rainfall, it will not
take much additional rainfall to cause continued or renewed
flooding, as Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) is indicated to be 1.0" or
less for the bulk of the region. With hi-res models (00z HREF)
indicating relatively high odds for localized 2" exceedance (40-km
neighborhood probabilities of 20-50%), scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding are considered likely. Should these
2-5" streaks of rainfall occur over particularly sensitive
terrain, flooding may be locally significant.=20=20

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!65jeMKewRQbbm6f8Sc1OzS0H7NWyCscsuXNwaNnmBf5yuNmOhC0rp6mCrBIoV5xm8iKW= H3_oXoiBGms7WCvmQyTpTZo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39248266 39138199 38748173 38188196 37928239=20
37428322 36898454 36678539 36368647 35848783=20
35308941 35209041 35709107 36908981 37788809=20
38428664 38758553 38998447 39118361=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041104
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-041530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0117
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
703 AM EDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Ohio Valley and Central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 041103Z - 041530Z

SUMMARY...Widespread areas of areal flooding and flash flooding
will continue through the early to mid-morning hours with locally
considerable impacts as additional rounds of heavy showers and
thunderstorms arrive. Some improvement expected by late morning.

DISCUSSION...The early-morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery along
with dual-pol radar shows an extensive axis of cold-topped
convection associated with heavy showers and thunderstorms
impacting large areas of Kentucky with an eastward extension of
this down into areas of western and southern West Virginia. The
convection continues to be supported by a south-southwest
low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts with a nose of modest instability
characterized by MUCAPE values of as much as 500 to 1000 J/kg.

A somewhat complicated frontal structure is in place as well with
a surface frontal boundary situated across middle Tennessee and
into the central Appalachians with an inverted trough back to the
northwest of this over Kentucky that is more reflective of a
rather strong 850/925 mb front. The convergence along this feature
coupled with strong warm air advection and moisture transport over
the surface boundary is contributing to the extensive axis of
convection that still currently remains in place.

PWs across the region are generally on the order of 1.5 to 1.7
inches which is running about 2 standard deviations above normal
for this time of the year, and this continues to favor heavy
rainfall rates with aid from the low-level jet. Some rainfall
rates with the current activity continue to be upwards of 1 to 2
inches/hour, with some of the heaviest rates seen over central and
southern Kentucky and coinciding with the colder convective tops.

A series of very low-amplitude vort impulses embedded within the
stronger deeper layer west-southwest mid-level flow will tend to
support some sustenance of the convection at least for the next 2
to 3 hours, but the 06Z HREF guidance generally suggests an
overall weakening trend of the convection by later this morning as
this energy advances downstream and away from the region.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected prior
to this.

Regardless, extremely sensitive soil conditions along with high
streamflows will support generally any additional rainfall going
right into runoff, with areal flooding and flash flooding likely
to continue this morning which will include locally considerable
impacts on the ground.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5Fznc_x1McqQxNPWHnplxKufBF9opAbQWow7JJhAz7Q7psbzXESMyqNSHDL4uqVKT0Gy= FhujT9pj9qC5If6c5iWgQWo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39148251 38998040 38028020 37068290 36598543=20
36118826 36268923 36888916 37498816 38018666=20
38658487=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041233
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-041831-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0118
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
832 AM EDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...Eastern OK...Western and Northern AR...Southern
MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041231Z - 041831Z

SUMMARY...Organizing clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will pose at least some concern for pockets of flash flooding
going through midday.

DISCUSSION...The early-morning GOES-E WV suite shows a vigorous
mid-level trough gradually ejecting east out into the southern
High Plains which is interacting with a moist and unstable airmass
surging northward up into the Arklatex region and broader lower MS
Valley region along with proximity of a quasi-stationary front. A
strong southerly low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts is overrunning
this front which is yielding substantial warm air
advection/isentropic ascent and a nose of elevated instability up
across areas of eastern OK, northern AR and southern MO.

Already there is a large cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms
impacting especially northeast OK and northwest AR where very cold
convective tops to about -75 C are noted. The convection is being
aided by strong kinematics with strong effective bulk shear
parameters (50 to 60+ kts) in place coupling with the nose of
elevated instability with MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg.

This convection is expected to remain well-organized through the
midday time frame with the convection likely becoming more
pronounced eventually into areas of southern MO, but with
additional development impacting areas of eastern OK and western
to northern AR going into the early afternoon hours. This will be
supported by some further strengthening of the low-level jet
(reaching as high as 40 to 50 kts) up across eastern OK and
western AR by early this afternoon ahead of the upstream height
falls.

The aforementioned front will be lifting north as a warm front
with time, and this coupled with proximity of an inverted surface
trough poleward of the front will yield substantial low-level
convergence and forcing for convection. While there will be a
well-defined severe mode to the convection over the next several
hours, there will be sufficient levels of heavy rainfall that
pockets of flash flooding may begin to materialize. This will be
aided by 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates and some rainfall totals
through 18Z (1PM CDT) of as much as 2 to 4 inches. The more=20
sensitive locations for runoff concerns should tend be over the
Ozark Plateau. However, there will also be urban runoff
considerations for flash flooding as well.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!738EzVqskWXfNmic-InLYm7NPBYcti281QVL6D2CbzgZMNYt1bjIkYgK7s1ZSaPA_cj5= NlCFZiGcVeOow7gYyteXgqM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37889085 37598974 36888920 36178999 35259323=20
34289432 34239542 34889594 35729655 36499615=20
37319440 37769268=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041513
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-042000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0119
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1112 AM EDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...Central to Northeast OK...Far Northwest
AR...Southwest MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 041510Z - 042000Z

SUMMARY...Increasingly concentrated areas of very heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity is occurring over northeast OK, far
northwest AR and into areas of southwest MO. Flash flooding is
likely with locally considerable impacts over the Ozark Plateau
going through mid-afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite trends show an increasingly
concentrated southwest to northeast axis of very heavy showers and thunderstorms across portions of central to northeast OK,
northwest AR, and into southwest MO.

There are strong cell-training concerns setting up across this
region as the convection becomes aligned with the deeper layer
mean flow and also in close proximity to a well-defined 850/925 mb
convergence axis/front. Additionally, there is a well-defined
elevated instability gradient in place here with MUCAPE values of
as much as 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Facilitating the overall heavy
rainfall footprint continues to be the nose of a 30 to 40+ kt
low-level jet which should further strengthen a bit over the next
few hours which will yield stronger moisture transport into the
region for convective sustenance and also enhanced rainfall rate
potential.

Rainfall rates of as much as 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour will be
possible with the stronger storms, but with increasingly
well-established cell-training concerns, there may be as much as 4
to 6 inches of rain that occurs by mid-afternoon. None of the
current 12Z HREF guidance, nor the recent HRRR solutions, have a
good handle of the ongoing activity. Based on the
repeating/training signature of cooling convective cloud tops over
eastern OK, it appears that an organized level of convection will
certainly continue in the near-term.

Flash flooding has already started locally, but a more regional
and higher level of flash flooding impacts can generally expected
to occur soon, and especially for areas of the Ozark Plateau.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5hBlg23FMRW-uk3586EhmJn2OPHs3FRGHSkqR2KmkuCazBiDilTl66yG0G-Rj8chB_OZ= myMiqQuTGlx8PUH0aYSvFJI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37689214 37289195 36799275 35959445 35299551=20
34579645 34799679 35629628 36229565 36859477=20
37229404 37669286=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041546
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-042000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0120
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1145 AM EDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 041545Z - 042000Z

SUMMARY...Additional pockets of heavy rainfall may continue
through early this afternoon across areas of western and central
KY, with areas farther east across eastern KY and southern WV
seeing a continued slow improvement. Additional areas of areal
flooding and flash flooding will continue though in the near-term.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery continues to show a west to east axis
of moderate to locally heavy rain associated with showers and
thunderstorms continuing to focus across the region to the north
of a returning warm front. Warm air advection/isentropic ascent
over this boundary along with the proximity of an elevated
instability gradient is a factor in maintaining the convective
threat and this continues to be aided by a persistent
south-southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts.

The 12Z HREF guidance insists that the threat for heavy rains over
areas downstream involving eastern KY and southern WV should wane
going into the afternoon hours, however, there may still be some
localized persistence of convection with localized cell-training
concerns for areas of central and western KY including areas
closer to the OH River. A northward advance of some of the
convection is also expected to occur over southern IL and southern
IN which will need to be closely monitored.

Rainfall rates with the stronger storms still lingering over
western KY, and also overspreading parts of southern IL and
southern IN may exceed 1 inch/hour, with some additional spotty
rainfall amounts here of up to 2+ inches going through
mid-afternoon. All of these additional rains will only act to
prolong and exacerbate the ongoing areal flooding and flash
flooding situation across this portion of the OH Valley.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4qPgw1VzB_zkfCBGqefUftHfJyl9naMVoclp1EdovrKVSoAJj3BfTIA6jdl4RuOQdt_B= Xs0ohtICtWH0jSR58nmVB60$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...MRX...PAH...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38868629 38798425 38378207 37578121 37158228=20
37228348 37298580 37188869 37628964 38328920=20
38708816=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041852
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-050050-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0121
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
251 PM EDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...Arklatex...Ozark Plateau...Lower MS
Valley...Lower OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 041850Z - 050050Z

SUMMARY...Numerous areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue to evolve going into the evening hours, with concerns for cell-training, and locally very heavy rainfall totals. Numerous to
widespread areas of flash flooding, including significant and
life-threatening impacts, are expected to gradually occur going
into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The early-afternoon GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a
vigorous mid-level trough continuing to gradually eject east out
across the southern High Plains which is interacting with a very
moist and strongly unstable airmass surging northward ahead of it
involving the Arklatex/Lower MS Valley and portions of the Lower
OH Valley.

The latest surface analysis shows an area of low pressure becoming
a bit better defined across far northeast TX with a warm front
extending northeast from there up across central AR, northwest TN,
and into southern KY. Strong warm air advection is surging
poleward of this front with the aid of a south-southwest low-level
jet of 40 to 50+ kts. GOES-E visible satellite imagery shows a
substantial amount of solar insolation helping to destabilize the
warm sector over the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South, and the latest
RAP analysis a broad area of MLCAPE values into the 2000 to 3000
J/kg range. Farther to the north, a lot of this CAPE coupled with
strong isentropic ascent is yielding a corridor of locally
enhanced elevated convection currently across northwest AR,
southwest to central MO, and in a more broken fashion farther off
to the east into parts of the Lower OH Valley.

Flash flooding is already ongoing over sizable portions of the
Ozark Plateau from elevated training convection with rainfall
rates into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range. However, over the next few
hours, a much more substantial outbreak of strong to severe
convection including supercell clusters should evolve over parts
of the Lower MS Valley and especially the Arklatex region.
Enhanced instability and strong shear low-level shear parameters
will be key to this.

Rainfall rates will be increasing to as much as 2 to 3 inches/hour
with the stronger and more organized supercell structures, and the
concern by this evening with be a setup conducive for convection
training over the same area in close proximity to the
aforementioned wave of low pressure and related orientation of the
front. A trailing part of this front will extend down into areas
of northeast TX, with the northeast extension lifting up into the
Lower OH Valley.

Very heavy rainfall totals are likely by this evening, with parts
of northeast TX through west-central and northern AR likely seeing
as much as 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated heavier totals
possible. The heavy rains with somewhat lesser totals will also
likely impact areas of southern MO. Given the rainfall totals and
wet antecedent conditions, numerous to widespread areas of flash
flooding, including significant and life-threatening impacts, are
expected to gradually occur heading into the evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6R-AfvbxfA3EC4tOOR5sYz7d-C3asUM26WG6qeE4Ew-OUSpuqAOwYxVKBWsj3by8WnYK= tlIKCU7-aQKUtPg1iV0Rbrw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...WGRFC...
NWC...

LAT...LON 38848910 37778816 36738896 35739043 34379228=20
32599413 32059512 32049620 32729687 33909669=20
35719526 38249194=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 042113
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-050210-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0122
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 PM EDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...western TN into KY and far southern IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042108Z - 050210Z

SUMMARY...Brief training of scattered thunderstorms will pose a
possible risk of isolated to widely scattered areas of renewed
flash flooding across saturated soils of western TN into KY and
the OH Valley through 02Z. While storm coverage is a bit
uncertain, rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible if/where
cells are able to repeat/train.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery across the OH
Valley at 21Z showed scattered thunderstorms, some organized
supercells, from western TN into portions of southern KY. The
cells were located along or south of a slow moving warm front
which was analyzed WSW to ENE from the MO Bootheel into southern
KY. While better forcing and thunderstorm coverage was located
well to the west of this region (northeastern TX into southern
MO), sufficient instability, daytime heating, frontal convergence
and subtle/weak remnant boundaries from prior convection were
helping to develop storms south of the front.

Storm motions for most cells should be from the SW to WSW between
30-40 kt, not a major concern for flash flooding and expectations
are for cell coverage to remain scattered through the evening.
However, there is some low-end potential for additional cell
development on the heels of existing cells to set up a window for
short term training from SW to NE. Given the highly sensitive,
saturated soils from 4 to as much as an estimated 10 inches of
rain over the past 48 hours, the potential for another quick 1-2
inches could result in isolated to widely scattered flash flooding
into the evening hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-s0RpwNCXZfkQfdlIuu5LbI6WDR5-gy51CWFUPr9soveKbHvmWUOLpIiX94JFVeCgvlK= ZwhqidXL2jjsNt-ppBQ3Jx0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38498606 38478456 37968313 37658271 37178297=20
36518443 36098633 34958869 35098962 35728981=20
36828929 37808796=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050022
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-050615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0123
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
821 PM EDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...northeastern TX, ArkLaTex, into central AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 050019Z - 050615Z

SUMMARY...Training of thunderstorms and flash flooding is likely
to continue from northeastern TX into central AR over the next few
hours. Rainfall rates within axes of training will contain 1-3
in/hr rates (but locally higher cannot be ruled out). Additional
rainfall totals of 3 to 6+ inches may occur within a narrow axis
from northeastern TX into southwestern AR through 06Z, potentially
causing considerable to life-threatening impacts.

DISCUSSION...00Z radar imagery showed a slow moving cluster of
heavy rain over northeastern TX, from north of I-20 into
southwestern AR. Colder cloud tops in GOES East infrared imagery
showed a classic appearance of a strongly divergent and diffluent
pattern in the upper levels. Observed rainfall rates within this
cluster have exceeded 3 in/hr at times and produced 5 to 6+ inches
of rain in the vicinity of Lindale, TX since ~21Z. This cluster of thunderstorms was located along and just ahead of a slow moving
cold front, attached to a surface low in far southwestern AR. A
warm front extended northeastward from the low into far
southeastern MO and was being overrun by a strong 40-50 kt low
level jet.

The surface low is forecast to move northeastward into
north-central AR by 06Z, beginning an eastward push to the front
over central AR, but with little movement south of the AR/TX
border. As this occurs, the core of the 850 mb jet axis is
expected to nudge eastward to the MS Valley, but heavy rain
along/ahead of the front should remain a flash flood concern due
to training. Moderately strong MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg
(00Z SPC mesoanalysis) should lower a bit due to nocturnal
cooling, but remain more than sufficient for strong updrafts and
heavy rainfall production. Alignment of the front with the deeper
layer steering flow and only a slow eastward translation will set
up a dangerous pattern for very heavy rain on a localized basis
with potential for 2 to 3+ in/hr rates and 3 to 6+ inches of rain
over the next 6 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!80hdqKdN75RYAE95dB8wXfQ7tyDFZkyDyWiogcqXJ3i5MP-DVlqtiZfcSo3Uix2LjJEM= _9F7Wl7lPQ743ys8ezZCNp4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35649226 35459160 34609170 33439282 32139408=20
31629519 32249561 33349493 34149447 34679376=20
35179315=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050133
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-050725-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0124
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
933 PM EDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...northern AR across mid MS/lower OH Valleys into
central IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 050132Z - 050725Z

SUMMARY...Numerous to widespread flash flood coverage is expected
to affect locations from northern AR into and across the mid
MS/lower OH Valleys into central IN through 07Z. An elongated axis
of heavy rain with embedded training is expected to produce a
broad swath of 1 to 3 inch rainfall totals with embedded maxima
over 5 inches possible.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 01Z showed an axis of heavy
rain that extended from the ArkLaTex into central IL/IN with a
large number of ongoing flash flood warnings and reports. Within
this axis were areas of training from SW to NE with MRMS-derived
hourly rainfall maxima of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher) since
21Z. A surface low was analyzed over southwestern AR, with a
quasi-stationary front extending northeastward into the lower OH
Valley, before turning eastward along the KY/TN border. A strong
850 mb jet axis of 40 to 55 kt was present just ahead of the
surface low, streaming anomalous precipitable water values of 1.5
to 1.7 inches north-northeastward from the western Gulf and
ascending over the strongly defined baroclinic zone over the
Mid-South. Unidirectional flow in the low to mid-levels above the
LFC has, and will continue to support, areas of training overnight.

Short term forecasts take the warm front northward within the
highly amplified large scale flow over the lower 48 and form a
surface low along the front, expected to reach east-central IL at
06Z. Strong ascent will continue ahead of the low and lifting warm
front with continued areas of training containing rainfall rates
of 1-2 in/hr (locally higher), supported by 500 to 1500+ J/kg
MUCAPE. Aiding ascent will be the right entrance region of a
strengthening anitcyclonically curved upper level jet max over the
upper Great Lakes. A broad axis of heavy rain is likely to extend
from central AR into IL/IN with a gradual eastward translation,
ahead of the cold front and with possible eastward bowing segments
of the line, allowing for locally enhanced training/high rainfall
rates just south of the bowing segments. Convective orientation
will often match the mean steering flow, supporting prolonged
periods of training that will gradually shift off toward the east
into portions of the lower OH Valley which have received very
heavy rain over the past 24-48 hours. Numerous to widespread
coverage of flash flooding is likely through 07Z with locally
significant impacts possible across a few locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!95-tfsyPL9x22f_NUxd8Mvhnp6SCNwmNNRzpvSVyLLa4UD3Sp1vT4I23n6f91th7_DQg= UsaVaMwSz6_n83TcxsomfhU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...
PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 40448738 40308540 38828509 37328674 36208886=20
35029067 35219201 36079193 38378992=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050711
FFGMPD TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-05130=
0-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0125
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 AM EDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...Ark-La-Tex through the Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 050700Z - 051300Z

Summary...Convection to continue with rainfall rates of 1-3"/hr
and 6 hour localized totals of 3-6". Numerous to widespread flash
flooding to continue.

Discussion...A blocking pattern on the synoptic scale continues to
allow for a persistent region uplift via favorable upper-level
divergence. At the surface, convective initiation usually occurs
in the vicinity of the quasi-stationary front (in this case also
accompanied by strong frontogenesis). These storms have a steady
supply of moisture from the Gulf via an unusually strong and
persistent low-level jet (30-50 kts at 925-850 mb). Going forward,
the corridor most favored to receive heavy rainfall is
characterized by MU CAPE of 1250-1750 J/kg, a ribbon of near
record high precipitable water of 1.6-1.9 inches (well above the
max moving average for LZK, as a 2.0" reading has never been
recorded in April), and deep layer (0-6 km) shear of 40-60 kts.

Looking ahead, a hi-res model consensus suggest a narrow corridor
of 3-6" of rainfall is possible over the next 6 hours as the front
remains stalled in a highly favorable environment for renewed
convection capable of producing rainfall rates of 1-3"/hr. The 00z
HREF indicates high probabilities (50-70%) for localized 3"
exceedance (40-km neighborhood) from southwest AR through far
western TN and the MO Bootheel. While it is a good thing that the
bulk of the heavy rainfall over the past 24 hours has occurred to
the west of the main area of concern (though some portions of the
Ark-La-Tex are among those that have already received 3"+), 6 hour
Flash Flood Guidance values still generally range from 2.0-3.0".
As a result, continued numerous to widespread flash flooding is
likely. Should some of the more extreme depictions of localized
5"+ totals occur (as shown by more recent HRRR runs as well),
significant, life threatening flash flooding will be possible.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4OWJSAQ9t69iVFfJhpDM-sksI1kTn1EHqLQqAkfvJcUkJhEdjWdEpkf0OTQg6ga4AuKy= j0kCHSadVehZGC7lpzN7ogg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37998815 37618751 36748746 36048839 35668889=20
34869011 34289110 33799202 33169337 32999405=20
33149447 33709474 34379432 34909361 35659255=20
36319153 36819079 37488950=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051052
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-051600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0126
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
650 AM EDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...Central to Northeast TX...Eastern OK...Western AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 051050Z - 051600Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting areas of
central to northeast TX and southeast OK will advance into
west-central to southwest AR, favoring a continued likelihood of
flash flooding, including significant and life-threatening impacts.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
an elongated complex of cold-topped convection advancing across
areas of central to northeast TX and up across southern and
eastern OK. Convection is also seen redeveloping ahead of this
into areas of west-central AR. The convection is being strongly
forced by the gradual ejection of stronger height falls across the
southern Plains in association with a mid-level trough.

A quasi-stationary front with multiple waves of low pressure
riding northeast along it remains draped in a southwest to
northeast fashion from central TX northeastward across central AR.
As the upstream height falls and axis of DPVA continues to advance
east, this boundary along with the pooling of moderate to strong
instability should continue to favor well-organized clusters of
convection with very heavy rainfall potential.

MUCAPE values are on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg along the
front, and there is a southerly low-level jet of 30 to 40+ kts
continuing to favor strong moisture flux convergence parameters.
The latest RAP analysis shows a stronger corridor of this
currently across northeast TX up into southeast OK and areas of
west-central AR where convection recently has grown upscale with
cooling convective tops.

The antecedent conditions are extremely sensitive over areas of
far northeast TX and much of western AR where very heavy rainfall
and locally high-impact/catastrophic flash flooding has already
occurred over the last 6 to 12 hours. Sensitivities on the ground
are also noted over eastern OK with a substantial lowering of FFG
values compared to 24 hours.

Additional rainfall amounts going through the mid to late-morning
hours may reach 2 to 4 inches with isolated heavier amounts which
is supported by recent HRRR solutions and the experimental WoFS as
well. Some of the heaviest rainfall at least for the next couple
of hours should tend to be over far eastern OK and into western AR
where substantial Low-level forcing is currently in place.

Expect numerous to widespread areas of flash flooding to continue
this morning, with locally significant and life-threatening flash
flooding impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4l2yqdDHE367UPseM7cDidQNpbnCD2iRWQDCrJYjOl65D01yjUcogme9IvthDwbk1PfR= ykLmMMOtzDqwYJydjGhF_9Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36369375 35959288 35059257 33729311 32449450=20
31829568 31689673 32549738 33999678 35889516=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051132
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-051730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0127
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
731 AM EDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 051130Z - 051730Z

SUMMARY...Additional rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms
moving into the OH Valley this morning over extremely
sensitive/saturated and locally flooded ground will further
enhance runoff concerns and flooding this morning.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a couple of bands of heavy
showers and thunderstorms advancing east across areas of western
KY and also western TN, with an axis of weaker and more fragmented
convection downstream across central and eastern KY which is
starting to move into parts of southwest WV.

The surface analysis shows a well-defined outflow boundary/front
across the region with a persistent southwest low-level jet of 30
to 40 kts overrunning this boundary and facilitating sustainable
isentropic ascent and transport of moisture and instability over
it. However, the best nose of instability with MUCAPE values of
500 to 1000 J/kg is situated over western TN and this is likely
going to be the area that sees some of the more organized
convection persisting through the morning hours.

One complicating factor to the forecast for rainfall this morning
though is the fact that there is some evidence of an MCV advancing
east across western KY, and this vort energy may continue to
interact with the low-level jet and outflow boundary in a manner
that may help to sustain the convective threat for a few more
hours downstream into areas of central and eastern KY. The
rainfall rates with this will likely be on the order of 1 to 1.5
inches/hour at most with the strongest cells, but the fact that
these additional rains will be falling over areas that are either
already flooded, or have at least very sensitive/saturated soil
conditions, suggests that additional areal flooding and flash
flooding concerns will occur over these areas.

The bigger and more significant concerns for high-end flash
flooding and life-threatening impacts this morning though will be
back across western TN and will be connected to upstream heavy
rainfall/flash flooding concerns evolving back into
central/eastern AR where there is a growing threat of significant cell-training. Recent runs of the HRRR guidance suggest heavy
training rainfall over central and eastern AR will impact western
TN. Very high rainfall rates here of 2+ inches/hour will be
possible, with additional rains locally of 2 to 4+ inches by
midday over western TN. The additional downstream rains over KY
should tend to be more into 1 to 2 inch range.

Expect areal flooding and flash flooding to continue with locally
significant and life-threatening impacts as these additional rains
arrive over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-cLPD_GDRvtB48xhx_7yzbwEo3MFGEDxdfWq31hwZnAD9txO2ynZHNJ0qXai6HVB7J6Q= gfmRJlUdFvYiKSOpeQEx03s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38918449 38828204 37438196 36308489 35478827=20
35838980 37088921 38048747=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051316
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-051915-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0128
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
915 AM EDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...Arklatex...Lower MS Valley...Mid-South...Lower OH
Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 051315Z - 051915Z

SUMMARY...Training areas of very heavy showers and thunderstorms
over the next several hours are expected across large areas of
central and eastern AR and also parts of western TN. High-end
flash flooding with life-threatening and locally catastrophic
impacts will likely set up over the next several hours across
these areas. This is a particularly dangerous situation.

DISCUSSION...A particularly dangerous situation is expected to
begin to unfold over the next several hours across areas of
central and eastern AR and potentially into western TN as a band
of slow-moving and training showers and thunderstorms with high
rainfall rates impacts this region. Already the mid-morning GOES-E
IR satellite imagery and area dual-pol radars show an extensive
area of convection impacting large areas of the Arklatex with an
eastward extension of this into portions of the Mid-South and
Lower OH Valley.

The convection continues to be driven by the gradual ejection of
mid-level troughing/height falls across the southern Plains with
downstream interaction with a moist and unstable 30 to 40+ kt
southerly low-level jet and proximity of a strong frontal zone.
Multiple waves of low pressure continue to transit the front which
is yielding locally focused areas of low-level convergence and
forcing and this is with an already divergent flow pattern aloft.
MUCAPE values along the front which extends from southwest to
northeast AR are on the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg along with a
substantial block of vertical shear with effective bulk shear
values of 50+ kts overrunning large areas of the Lower MS Valley
and Mid-South.

The HRRR guidance shows the low-level jet becoming increasingly
convergent and strengthening to 50+ kts by late this morning from
far eastern TX up through southern AR with a substantial corridor
of speed convergence suggested along the nose of this across
central and eastern AR and into western TN. The moisture transport
will be very strong, and the latest CIRA-ALPW data shows very
strong SFC/850 mb LVT (Layered Vapor Transport) values of 320+
kg/m/s lifting up across the western Gulf Coast region which will
advance north through the Lower MS Valley by midday and through
this afternoon. The PWs are forecast to be 1.75+ inches and the
level of forcing, moisture transport and instability should
support locally extreme rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ inches/hour.

Extensive cell-training with these high rainfall rates is the
major concern over the next several hours, with potential
additional rainfall totals of as much as 4 to 6+ inches possible
by mid-afternoon. Saturated soil conditions included areas that
are already flooded will see enhanced impacts from these rains
which may include multiple large cities extending from Texarkana,
AR northeastward to Dyersburg, TN. This is particularly dangerous
situation with with concerns for Flash Flood Emergency level
impacts going through mid-afternoon.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-BhH9G-ZmCxiqRHn0PiJVw6byh-WhR6Pg8asL4B-cpi_S5jdNEcf-7jnMRSCrSvGflIo= h8xPwp0PWUV3KiqMR8HI1h4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...SGF...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37508810 36988764 35838834 34759000 34229102=20
33379260 32569373 32739468 33249472 34499433=20
35429358 36019280 37149070 37488942=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061825
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-070023-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0136
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 PM EDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Areas affected...coastal Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061823Z - 070023Z

Summary...Scattered convective bands will continue to promote
occasional training across the discussion area through 00Z/8p EDT.
1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates can be expected with the most vigorous
and training convection. Occasional instances of flash flooding
remain possible.

Discussion...Over the past couple hours, a linear MCS has
exhibited limited/localized convective training while resulting in
several spots of 2+ inch/hr rain rates northeast through southwest
of Montgomery. This MCS remains oriented favorably for localized
training as it migrates toward the Auburn and Columbus areas.=20
These storms will likely maintain their intensity through at least
the AL/GA border with local 2 inch/hr rain rates continuing.=20
Instability is a bit weaker in Georgia, which could result in the
onset of a weakening trend with storms as they move toward the
Macon vicinity.

Farther upstream, trailing, but diffuse outflow was located
generally from Montgomery west-southwestward to areas just
southeast of Hattiesburg. Additional showers/thunderstorms
continue to persist along and south of this outflow generally from
coastal areas of Mississippi northeastward to Montgomery. A few
updrafts were also noted on the southwestern flank of the
aforementioned MCS near Montgomery. These trends will continue,
with localized areas of backbuilding and training promoting 2
inch/hr rain rates at times and localized spots of 4+ inch amounts
through 00Z this evening. Given rain rates and the overall FFG
spatial profile across the discussion area, flash flood potential
appears to be maximized in urbanized/sensitive areas and in spots
that can experience greater than 1-2 hours of training, deep
convection.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!46JctrMCaWOGj-m2C0VETVgpQJpnfrZ9i8GImeVaxYy7Db-Ph7ZFk-MAXawpHDlxLqQa= inkIm7CqFKJKhDOZEz5gtIU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33478451 33478369 32708348 31538453 30848620=20
30188822 30148950 31238915 32018854 32898634=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062314
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-070410-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0137
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
712 PM EDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Areas affected...Coastal MS...Southern AL...Western FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 062310Z - 070410Z

SUMMARY...Training bands of showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the evening hours which will include locally
significant and life-threatening flash flooding concerns from
extreme rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows an extensive axis
of cold-topped convection impacting portions of coastal MS through
southwest AL. This corridor of heavy shower and thunderstorm
activity is embedded within a divergent flow regime aloft with a
combination of right-entrance region upper jet dynamics and
shearing vort energy interacting with a moist and unstable
south-southwest low-level jet.

The latest area VWP data shows a convergent low-level jet on the
order of 30 to 40+ kts with some of the strongest moisture
convergence magnitudes situated across coastal MS/AL and the far
western parts of the FL Panhandle. MLCAPE valyes of 1500+ J/kg are
noted across this region with relatively strong shear parameters
(effective bulk shear of 40+ kts) still favoring organized
updrafts and a sustainable axis of convection.

Significant concerns for cell-training will exist through the
evening hours as this convection tends to maintain itself out
ahead of a cold front slowly approaching from the west. While the
overall instability may begin to slowly decrease in magnitude,
there will likely still be sufficient low-level
forcing/convergence and modest jet support aloft for convection to
continue over the next several hours albeit perhaps occasionally
in a broken fashion. Smaller scale bands of training convection
are expected to continue though locally.

Given the thermodynamic and kinematic environment, and level of
moisture transport off the Gulf, the rainfall rates will continue
to be locally extreme in nature, with rates as high as 2 to 4
inches/hour. Already areas around the Mobile, AL metropolitan area
and adjacent suburbs have been seeing these high rates over the
last couple of hours. In fact, just in the last hour, the Downtown
Mobile (KBFM) ASOS reported 3.17 inches of rain!

The latest HRRR guidance suggests high-end rainfall potential
going through the mid to late-evening hours, with additional
rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches possible, with isolated heavier
amounts. The 12Z ARW/ARW2 solutions of the HREF suite have a
similar footprint, but are likely a bit too far to the north
considering the latest observational trends.

Given these solutions and the latest radar and satellite trends,
it seems rather likely that some portions of southwest and
southern AL in particular, and the far western parts of the FL
Panhandle will have a period of extreme rainfall over the next few
hours at least.

Consequently, flash flooding is likely to continue through the
evening hours, including potentially significant and
life-threatening impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6tJnoky9b0kBloIYnqTHjGEexeGoxM-sjB5J2mUVJThqY_OzF6nQArzpr7h1KiUc0lgw= z7Nk5H9SnxJfYkzIemOSPaM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 31878642 31848563 31178560 30548641 30208782=20
30138870 30438895 31008836 31618709=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062316
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-070410-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0137
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
715 PM EDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Areas affected...Coastal MS...Southern AL...Western FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 062310Z - 070410Z

SUMMARY...Training bands of showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the evening hours which will include locally
significant and life-threatening flash flooding concerns from
extreme rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows an extensive axis
of cold-topped convection impacting portions of coastal MS through
southwest AL. This corridor of heavy shower and thunderstorm
activity is embedded within a divergent flow regime aloft with a
combination of right-entrance region upper jet dynamics and
shearing vort energy interacting with a moist and unstable
south-southwest low-level jet.

The latest area VWP data shows a convergent low-level jet on the
order of 30 to 40+ kts with some of the strongest moisture
convergence magnitudes situated across coastal MS/AL and the far
western parts of the FL Panhandle. MLCAPE values of 1500+ J/kg are
noted across this region with relatively strong shear parameters
(effective bulk shear of 40+ kts) still favoring organized
updrafts and a sustainable axis of convection.

Significant concerns for cell-training will exist through the
evening hours as this convection tends to maintain itself out
ahead of a cold front slowly approaching from the west. While the
overall instability may begin to slowly decrease in magnitude,
there will likely still be sufficient low-level
forcing/convergence and modest jet support aloft for convection to
continue over the next several hours albeit perhaps occasionally
in a broken fashion. Smaller scale bands of training convection
are expected to continue though locally.

Given the thermodynamic and kinematic environment, and level of
moisture transport off the Gulf, the rainfall rates will continue
to be locally extreme in nature, with rates as high as 2 to 4
inches/hour. Already areas around the Mobile, AL metropolitan area
and adjacent suburbs have been seeing these high rates over the
last couple of hours. In fact, just in the last hour, the Downtown
Mobile (KBFM) ASOS reported 3.17 inches of rain!

The latest HRRR guidance suggests high-end rainfall potential
going through the mid to late-evening hours, with additional
rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches possible, with isolated heavier
amounts. The 12Z ARW/ARW2 solutions of the HREF suite have a
similar footprint, but are likely a bit too far to the north
considering the latest observational trends.

Given these solutions and the latest radar and satellite trends,
it seems rather likely that some portions of southwest and
southern AL in particular, and the far western parts of the FL
Panhandle will have a period of extreme rainfall over the next few
hours at least.

Consequently, flash flooding is likely to continue through the
evening hours, including potentially significant and
life-threatening impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8aUsSa2dTP_AHq7EO7N8Aq2tXA_gAcZVx_K_0MLLpfulMOMnD8YT15GBvhT9AvzVGDJd= NJwMezGPybElErU79s7iAEY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 31878642 31848563 31178560 30548641 30208782=20
30138870 30438895 31008836 31618709=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071115
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-071630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0138
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
715 AM EDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Areas affected...Central FL Panhandle...Southwest GA...Far
Southeast AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071115Z - 071630Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving pre-frontal band with embedded training
cores pose localized 2-4" totals in 1-3 hours. Flash flooding
possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a broad right entrance region
of to 130+kt 3H Jet across the area of concern as the jet lifts
through the central Ohio Valley in the next few hours. A weak
surface low across NW GA is shepherding along a slow moving cold
front that now extends southward across SE AL into the far W FL
panhandle into the central Gulf. Along/ahead of the boundary the
instability axis is nosed northward into SW GA with 500+ MLCAPE as
far north as Columbus, GA increasing to 1500+ along the central
Gulf Coast, this while the moisture axis remains pooled mainly
through depth along and just anafrontal. However, there is a
viable overlap location along a pre-frontal surface to boundary
layer wind confluence and pressure trough. The combination of
factors as resulted in sufficient convective development of a
broadening band of thunderstorms from Washington county, FL to
Houston county, AL toward Calhoun county, GA. Moisture through
depth results in 1.75" total PWats, however, sfc-850mb LPW
supported by low 70s Tds suggest the bulk of that is being fluxed
into the confluent line at 15kts near surface to 35kts near cloud
base with solid 15-30 degrees of confluence.

As such, rates of 2"/hr occasionally ticking up to 2.5" are
becoming more common along the line into SE AL. Furthermore, the
flow above the boundary layer is providing fairly unidirectional
flow for training nearly parallel to the slow advancing frontal
zone. This allows for increased duration, especially as upstream
redevelopment is occurring well into the Gulf. While the front
is providing some slow eastward propagation this may allow for 1-2
hours of heavy rainfall and may result in localized 2-4" totals,
with highest totals more likely near the stronger flux and higher
unstable air near the Gulf, though potential to extend further
inland is expected as instability axis is forecast to shift
northward as well. FFG values seem to decrease from coast inward
to SW GA, to pose a similar potential of exceedance though the
line...but not continuously so. As such, flash flooding is
considered possible and likely to be widely scattered to scattered
in nature, and per usual greater near urban and traditional prone
locations.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!52qAP3rEyJJrL85feL7OzqOLlVvvwVwnMQ7s2AlsmfdL4VZaY7X4h4_rew0hJt3yQdIJ= _cndTreoUIhC1Ri87nZOTcQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33078300 32688277 31288362 30238431 29638483=20
29828542 30168584 30388616 31208554 31878483=20
32848365=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 192131
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-200245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0146
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
530 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...west-central TX into east-central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 192130Z - 200245Z

Summary...Repeating and training of cells over west-central TX
will pose at least a localized but increasingly likely flash flood
threat over the next several hours. The flash flood threat is
expected to expand northeastward into northern TX and east-central
OK after 00Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will be likely and
totals in excess of 4 inches through 03Z will be possible.

Discussion...Surface observations and radar imagery from 21Z
showed 3 or 4 supercells between MAF and SJT located near a
quasi-stationary front with movement toward the northeast.
Additional development was occurring northeast of these stronger
cells. The cells were located near and northeast of a triple point
low located just east of FST within a very unstable but modestly
moist environment with 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and PWATs near 1 inch
(via recent SPC mesoanalysis data). Cell coverage will increase
over the next few hours as forcing for ascent increases ahead of
an approaching mid-level low over western NM and as continued low
level moisture advection into/across the Red River helps to boost
instability.

Individual cells are likely to continue a northeastward motion
following the deeper-layer mean flow and frontal orientation but
organized supercells are likely to move right of the mean wind.
There will likely be elements of short term training as cell
alignment matches the steering flow but as cells advance off
toward the northeast, additional development is expected near the
triple point as low level southerly/southeasterly flow advects
unstable airmass back into the region.

Beyond 00Z, 850 mb winds are forecast to increase over
central/eastern TX above 40 kt, increasing low level moisture
northward across the Red River with pockets of CIN eroding across
OK (via recent RAP forecasts) likely supporting convective
development and expansion through 03Z. Given similarly oriented
storm motions and boundary orientation at the surface, training is
expected to become increasingly likely. Rainfall rates of 1-2
in/hr are expected to develop with areas of flash flooding
becoming likely. Potential for localized totals greater than 4
inches will exist and may overlap with the northern edge of 1-2
inches of rain which fell over the past 24 hours over portions of
TX/OK.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6QK-IFBxP_faYCThfe5DdxiQNub2Eeq7nuHf7c24BVknH3dtNaZy_P4aFGY5BPb0kLp2= IQ_D9P2ISE8mXfw7ZETkTK0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35669666 35639576 35269554 34579577 33069725=20
32169859 31650003 30690195 30730263 31280247=20
32370115 33459966 34869821=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 200243
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-200800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0147
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1042 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...west-central TX into northeastern OK into
adjoining portions of KS/MO/AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200240Z - 200800Z

SUMMARY...Training of heavy rain will continue over the next
several hours with a particular focus from areas of northern TX
into southeastern OK. Peak/localized rainfall rates over 3 in/hr
cannot be ruled out and an additional 3 to 6 inches may overlap
with locations that have picked up 2 to 4 inches within the past
2-3 hours. Considerable flash flooding with life-threatening
impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery over TX/OK showed a SW to NE oriented
axis of thunderstorms which extended from west of San Angelo, TX
to just north of Ardmore, OK. Supercells were embedded within the
axis and a general SW to NE movement of cells was allowing for
training and high rainfall rates. Recent reporting stations from Wunderground.com showed 3 to 6 inches of rain has fallen in
Montague County in northern TX since earlier today with rainfall
rates locally at or in excess of 3 in/hr between Bowie and Nocona
over the past 1-2 hours. Most of the convection was located along
or north of a frontal boundary draped across the southern Plains,
attached to a surface low just northeast of Fort Stockton.

The LLJ was measured by a few VAD wind plots in central TX at or
above 50 kt from the south and this southerly flow was overrunning
the baroclinic zone in place. Steering flow pointed toward the
northeast, or roughly parallel to the surface boundary, was
allowing for training and repeating cells. Additional
strengthening of the LLJ (~10 kt) is expected over the next few
hours ahead of a cold front extending southwest from the surface
low near Fort Stockton, forecast to sweep eastward over the next 6
hours. The surface low is forecast to track northeastward toward
the Red River overnight with strong ascent ahead of an ejecting
mid-level closed-low approaching from NM.

Training will continue with a particular focus for higher end
flash flooding possible from portions of northern TX into
southeastern OK. Recent WoFS output has shown high probabilities
(70 to 90+ percent) for 3+ inches extending from northwest of Fort
Worth, across the Red River near I-35 into southeastern OK between
Ardmore and McAlester. 50th percentile values from the 02Z WoFS
showed a stripe of 3-4 inches across this zone and 90th percentile
values (reasonable spot maxima) were 5-6 inches. Portions of the
region over northeastern OK into adjoining areas of KS/MO/AR
received heavy rain early this morning and are more sensitive to
runoff from additional heavy rain, with an additional 2-4 inches
possible across these northern areas of the MPD threat area.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9gpJbSa5-KNCzrfBTjBFoyuOJeRbHSAxBEJhkqpr48ZReyBOfuHjDvOD9Oha5290X_1j= TYkseKB6nNGpmN2TKkUFMKE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SGF...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37069474 36699427 36169407 35419451 34049574=20
33079686 32479782 31739910 30830191 31200255=20
32350138 33639939 35429726 36739566=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 200737
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-201335-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0148
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Areas affected...north-central Texas northeastward into the
Missouri Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200735Z - 201335Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues from far north-central
Texas through eastern Oklahoma. Some of this potential should
spread into far northwestern Arkansas and southern Missouri as
well.=20

Discussion...Three linear convective complexes have materialized
and picked up forward progress along an axis extending from near
Joplin, MO south-southwestward through Ardmore, OK to near
Stephenville, TX and Del Rio, TX. Because of the increase in
forward speed and upscale growth, the spatial extent of 1 inch/hr
rain rates have lessened substantially over the past two hours,
with only localized pockets noted per MRMS across southeastern
Oklahoma and west-central Texas. Nevertheless, these rates are
falling on areas of lowered FFGs from prior rainfall over the past
24-36 hours. MRMS Flash responses also remain elevated from
Jacksboro to Ardmore and near Muskogee. The orientation of
ongoing MCSs will allow for rainfall to repeat across these areas,
preventing any recovery from earlier flash flooding in these areas
and potentially worsening runoff in some spots.

The ongoing MCSs should continue to move eastward, but models
suggest potential for stalling of forward progress especially
across eastern OK/northwestern AR as a closed upper low hangs back
over New Mexico. The slowing MCSs and areas of convective mergers
should allow for continued flash flood potential especially in
areas that received prior heavy rainfall. Again, FFGs remain
lowered from eastern OK into northwestern AR from 3-8 inches of
antecedent rain, and 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates should continue at
least on a spotty basis for the next 3-6 hours across the
discussion area.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-U1RJgmAj7dXOJ7TLrRdG9B8hi9c6_l8zuIKYDkQG4oTQRsRNPyGJUaxGejs4sDkRzC_= iONFyol8VrfMt_hW3J-Kots$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38009189 37309158 36289193 35639271 34299488=20
33119599 32899779 33159847 34069822 34929741=20
36579591 37579364=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201525
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-202115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0149
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Areas affected...Eastern OK...Northwest AR...Southwest
MO...Southeast KS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201525Z - 202115Z

SUMMARY...Recharging thermodynamic enivorment and strong forcing
starting to initiate scattered convective activity capable of
intense rain-rates (1-1.5"/hr) across saturated soils conditions
possible to result in renewed flash flooding conditions locally.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts about 1.5 standard deviation
deep closed low centered across SW OK continuing to lift
northeastward with a negative tilt orientation extending across
the Red River Valley. The suite along the RADAR mosaic also
denotes the southern stream shortwave/MCV from last evening's
convective complex remains at the western gradient of the warm
conveyor belt in southwest MO lifting north-northeastward. The
pair support a stronger 1008/9mb surface low across central OK
with a warm front extending eastward across southeast OK while a
progressive cold front is undercutting through northeast TX. The
Ozarks/Boston Mountains along with worked over surface environment
breaks the frontal zone across NE OK toward a weakness in the
surface pattern across SW MO associated with the aforementioned
shortwave.

The interaction with these waves and strong dynamics (DPVA and
right entrance ascent pattern) across E OK is strengthening and
backing low level warm sector and sharpening the FGEN fields
across central to northeast OK into SW OK. VWP suite shows
southerly flow strengthening to 40-50kts through 700mb advecting
the conditionally unstable airmass across E TX/W AR where breaks
in cloud cover are bringing temperatures into teh low 70s with
increasing surface Tds into the mid 60s resulting in SBCAPEs over
1000 J/kg. Given the advective environment/strong backing flow
and isentropic ascent downstream of the height-falls; moisture
convergence/FGEN is strengthening across E OK attm.=20=20

As such, regional RADAR depicts increasing shallow convective
coverage across Coal/Hughes/Creek county axis with more widely
scattered activity further northeast along the WAA/FGEN axis into
SW MO. Total PWats of 1.25, steadily increasing toward 1.5" and
vertical development should support rates of 1-1.5"/hr with bulk
falling in less than 30 minutes. Forward propagation is likely to
initially limit overall totals initially to 1-1.5", but will be
falling across compromised soil conditions likely to exceed the
lowered FFG values (.75-1.5"/hr), the forward speed/coverage of
the rainfall may be limited and only result in re-aggravating
flash flooding conditions across the area; however, as the
afternoon progresses, increased heating/convective vigor will
increase coverage allowing for broader coverage particularly along
a SW to NE axis near the triple point as it lifts across NE OK,
far SE KS, SW MO where training/repeating will occur where SWly
steering flow is more parallel to the FGEN axis. This is also
where FFGs are further compromised below .5"/hr likely resulting
in broader areas of flash flooding into the mid-afternoon.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7p7E-w_gRtyoJqAWg-X5ohvJU_BPEKgD8jpwiVzfZyv5d3jgrL7OflBf_Oy6XiwAsceK= bYOi78V9u94eoxeSq1VCufk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38819352 38499282 37759260 37279277 36549330=20
35549393 34999446 34649485 34139579 34439655=20
35459673 36269662 37029605 38269479 38689419=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 202027
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-210220-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0150
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Areas affected...MO into eastern IA and far western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 202026Z - 210220Z

Summary...Heavy rain will translate north-northeast from MO into
IA through 02Z with embedded rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr due to
training. Flash flooding is expected (especially across wet
antecedent conditions) from an additional 2-3 inches, although 3+
cannot be completely ruled out.

Discussion...20Z surface observations placed a triple point
surface low along the southern KS/MO border with a cold front
extending southward from the low into western AR and a warm front
extending ENE across central MO. An inverted trough extended north
from the triple point low through western MO into central IA with
an attached surface low near CDJ. A convective line was
propagating eastward ahead of the cold front through southwestern
MO into a region of saturated soils due to 4 to 8 inches of rain
over the past 2 days. Farther north, surface convergence along the
inverted trough and slightly elevated low level convergence at the
nose of 35-50 kt 925-850 mb winds were aiding the placement of a
SW to NE axis of thunderstorms extending across north-central MO,
with periods of training ongoing.

As a potent mid-level shortwave tracks northeastward from the
central KS/OK border to the east-central IA/MO border over the
next 6 hours, the triple point low will follow a similar path with
low level convergence sustaining thunderstorms ahead of the
inverted surface trough in a SW to NE fashion (at least early on).
Increasing divergent and diffluent flow aloft within the right
entrance region of an upper level jet streak over western IA will
overlap the low level convergence yielding strong ascent. Steering
flow oriented SSW to NNE will support training along this low
level convergence axis ahead of the triple point low with rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr. Farther south, closer to the warm front's 20Z
position, additional rainfall should be lighter due to the
progressive nature of the convective line, with perhaps an
additional 1 to 1.5 inches max over the next few hours.

The greater concern for flash flooding will be over central MO due
to recent heavy rain, followed by locations from northern MO into
eastern IA where training is likely to produce an additional 2-3
inches along a fairly narrow axis. While a lack of recent rainfall
has northern MO into southern IA with limited soil moisture values
per NASA SPoRT imagery, flash flood guidance is as low as 1.5 to
2.5 inches in 3 hours and is likely to be surpassed in a few
locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4iZwCzsOU28YRCv-ryi1RghtsXfAieEaTm8mZirYUzjFahLb77Q3yXQeIGU9Wh7IOZE-= 2YDK19ajMOGYVYxrzsOEDc0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 42959099 41549071 39919100 38339169 37689236=20
37249332 37319402 37749442 38639448 39329435=20
40759361 42909264=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 202308
FFGMPD
TXZ000-210435-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0151
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
708 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Areas affected...middle/upper TX Coastal Plain

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 202306Z - 210435Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible from training,
slow movement and/or backbuilding thunderstorms along portions of
the TX Coastal Plain through early tonight. Rainfall rates could
exceed 2 to 3 in/hr resulting in storm total rainfall of 3 to 6
inches.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery showed a line of
scattered thunderstorms extending from eastern TX to the middle TX
coast, located along a trough axis positioned ahead of a cold
front/dryline which extended SSW from northeast TX into the
southern Coastal Plain. The environment was supportive of heavy
rain with PWATs of 1.7-1.9 inches, MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and
effective bulk shear of 25-40 kt (22Z SPC mesoanalysis).

Over the past few hours, cell motions have been averaging 20-25 kt
toward the NE (similar to the 0-6 km AGL mean wind), parallel to
the initiating trough axis, although slower motions were observed
south of 29 degrees N, where shear values were weaker. Cells to
the south were less numerous but have had a history of
backbuilding and rainfall rates of ~1 inch in 15 minutes across
portions of eastern Victoria County.

MLCAPE of at least 1000-2000 J/kg with little to no CIN is
forecast by the RAP to persist across the TX Coastal Plain beyond
sunset along with some degree of continued convection. While bulk
shear values are forecast to lower from south to north with a
departing mid-level shortwave over KS/MO, there may remain a
narrow zone where sufficient shear exists for at least
quasi-organized cells where low level inflow remains modest along
the middle to upper TX coast after 00Z. The combination of slowing
cell motions with a continued (though modest) influx of low level
moisture may be enough to sustain a cell or two with slow net
movement (backbuilding/training) which could result in localized
heavy rain with 3 to 6 inches possible.

However, this threat is considered to be very isolated in nature
and given dry antecedent conditions from a lack of rainfall over
the past two weeks, any impactful threat of heavy rainfall would
likely remain isolated and urban in nature.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Xwum2D-HNNvpNkuhJ1VMI4cungmctJ4h9_IkFKXekp1mIMO9FuWFgVAwGCaVVcEUoNj= BcuU_IhmnOccn2CnGoDtkhc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 31499497 31249426 29809509 28639650 28679709=20
29419670 30369581=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210428
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-211026-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0152
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1227 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Areas affected...western Louisiana, southeastern Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210426Z - 211026Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will continue through at
least 10Z/5a CDT.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the region.=20
04Z radar mosaic imagery depicts scattered, slow moving clusters
of thunderstorms along an axis from just south of Shreveport to
just northwest of Houston. The axis of convection was collocated
with an axis of confluent 850mb flow, with thunderstorms being
maintained by an airmass characterized by 1.5-1.8 inch PW values,
1000 J/kg MLCAPE, and weak convective inhibition. Ascent aloft
associated with a mid-level wave continues to depart the region,
which has resulted in slower storm motions (from weaker wind
fields aloft) and occasional heavy rain rates lasting for 1-3
hours, resulting in local areas of 2-4 inch rainfall totals.=20
These totals have impacted portions of Shreveport Metro, prompting
impacts earlier tonight.

Models/observations suggest that the current trends will continue,
with areas of 2-5 inch rainfall totals occurring beneath heavier
and most persistent convection through 10Z this morning. The
confluence axis and attendant thunderstorm activity may develop
slowly southward during this period as well. FFGs are quite high
(~4 inch/3-hrly rates) across the region, suggesting that heavier
rainfall may need to occur across sensitive and/or urban ground
conditions for any substantial impacts to materialize.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9rpuMnsWVoUVWykel--mceOdkwKFz_L81jMyUAVG6use6GRbzk_LfkXqfHKz3J7R9WEq= YcpZCeOH9suzl_J0Gr_ikfc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 32819266 32029230 30659348 29299519 28829635=20
29619631 30229592 31809459 32599358=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210952
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-211400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0153
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
552 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Areas affected...southeast Texas, far southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210950Z - 211400Z

Summary...Local/spotty flash flood potential should continue for
at least another 2-3 hours.

Discussion...Convection continues to fire along an 850mb
confluence axis extending from north-central Louisiana through
southeast Texas. Along and ahead of this confluence axis, 1000
J/kg MLCAPE and 1.7 inch PW values were combining with favorable
kinematics for slow-moving storms with locally extreme rain rates.
In fact, MRMS estimates approximately 6.5 inches of rain in
southern Tyler County over the past 3 hours. Nearby convection
has also produced 1-2 inch/hr rain rates at times. Recent radar
mosaic imagery also depicts an uptick in weaker convection from
Tyler County westward and southwestward through Colorado County,
suggestive of a continued flash flood threat in these areas over
at least the next 2-3 hours.

Convective coverage becomes a bit less certain after 13Z or so.=20
Although confluence will remain in place across the discussion
area through that time, RAP/SPC Mesoanalyses depict
weakening/slackening 850mb flow east of the confluence zone that
could cause existing updrafts to struggle against conditional
instability aloft. The timing of this scenario is a bit
uncertain, however, and recent CAMs maintain convection across the
discussion area (perhaps propagating and/or developing toward
coastal areas) through at least 15-16Z or so. This area will be
re-evaluated for any continuing flash flood potential (and another
MPD) after ~13-14Z or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8RJo606zd1WMJtEDznN4AR8V65bPUpR3N7_K2A6-J_IjRzYSPsetddO13LsdWa3tKqDf= uRoXyBEla7OZeNXFq18V7EQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 31669341 31289269 30569280 29899379 29159515=20
28739615 29059666 29829618 30479560 31419444=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211401
FFGMPD
TXZ000-211900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0154
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Areas affected...Coastal Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211358Z - 211900Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue through early
afternoon across the Upper and Middle Texas Coasts. Rainfall rates
in excess of 1"/hr mcould reach 3"/hr at times, leading to
rainfall of 2-3" with locally up to 5". This may cause instances
of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows a line
of showers and thunderstorms extending from near Corpus Christi,
TX northeast towards Beaumont, TX. This convection is blossoming
along a slow moving cold front analyzed by WPC which will continue
to sag very slowly southward towards the Gulf Coast through the
aftn. Rainfall rates this morning have already been estimated via
local radars of 2-3"/hr, resulting in 3-5" of rain in a few areas
in the vicinity of Houston, and these scattered intense rates are
likely to continue through the aftn.

As the front sags southward, it will encounter weak but onshore
850mb flow of 10-15 kts. While this is modest, it will be
sufficient in the presence of PWs that are 1.6 to 1.7 inches,
above the 90th percentile according to the SPC sounding
climatology, to produce intense moisture advection and convergence
into the boundary. This will combine with the approach of the LFQ
of a subtropical jet streak extending across northern Mexico to
enhance ascent, and the simulated radar from the morning CAMs
suggest storms will persist for many more hours. As instability
climbs to 2000-3000 J/kg later today, the organization of
convection may become more diffuse, but still widespread enough
that mean cloud layer winds from SW to NE will result in short
duration training. With HREF 2"/hr probabilities peaking above
40%, and the HRRR 15-min accumulated precipitation fields
indicating short-duration rain rates above 3"/hr possible, this
could cause 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts as much as 5"
into the aftn.

Soils across the region are generally drier than normal according
to the NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture anomalies, and this is
reflected by both 1-hr and 3-hr FFG that are generally 3-4 inches.
Despite that elevated FFG, the HREF indicates a 10-30% chance of
exceedance. This suggests at least an isolated flash flood risk,
but the greatest potential will be where any slow moving storms
can train or linger across urban areas where infiltration capacity
is lower.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9nrl5y5qCVdpT6p-Pt2fvcmz3jaTMBr23716sfzWqAHXpnlHmuUjG7f2OoIHI5LcqKTz= bTDXgkXuuC6B57uLE_5XUFc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30839475 30829407 30359376 29789402 29449468=20
28979541 28599606 28209661 27879695 27529725=20
27269743 27309773 27739780 28739691 30359540=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051916
FFGMPD TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-06011=
5-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0129
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 PM EDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...Lower MS Valley...Mid-South...Lower OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 051915Z - 060115Z

SUMMARY...Widespread flash flooding with continued areas of
training showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Lower MS
Valley, Mid-South and Lower OH Valley going into the evening
hours. High-end flash flooding with life-threatening and locally
catastrophic impacts will continue to be a likelihood.

DISCUSSION...Areas of extremely heavy rainfall will continue to
unfold over the next several hours as an elongated axis of
slow-moving and training showers and thunderstorms with high
rainfall rates impact large areas of the Lower MS Valley,
Mid-South and portions of the Lower OH Valley. The latest GOES-E
IR satellite imagery shows a very large and impressively
cold-topped convective canopy over the region, with dual-pol radar
showing some of the strongest convection and heaviest rainfall
rates associated with a QLCS stretching from southeast AR up
across western TN. Rainfall rates with this feature are well into
the 2 to 3 inch/hour range, and there has been at least some southwest/northeast oriented training of this band of severe
convection.

No major changes to the large scale pattern are noted as the
convection continues to be driven by the gradual ejection of
mid-level troughing/shortwave energy across the southern Plains
with downstream interaction with a very moist and unstable 40 to
50+ kt southerly low-level jet focused along and out ahead of a
strong frontal zone. Multiple waves of low pressure continue to
transit the front which is yielding locally focused areas of
low-level convergence and forcing within an area that is broadly
divergent aloft.

MLCAPE along and south of this front and also a nearby outflow
boundary off to the east are on the order of 2000 to 3000 J/kg.
Enhanced shear profiles remain in place with robust 0-3km bulk
shear values of 50 to 60 kts which is favoring highly organized
and severe-mode convection including supercell development. This
very unstable/sheared environment coupled with very strong
moisture transport will continue to favor extremely heavy rainfall
rates in the 2 to 3 inch/hour range going through this evening as
the overall convective axis gradually settles down to the south
and east.

The experimental WoFS and HRRR guidance support additional
rainfall totals of as much as 3 to 6+ inches. Some of these
additional rains will locally overlap with areas of the Mid-South
and Lower OH Valley that are extremely sensitive and experiencing
ongoing flooding. This includes parts of eastern AR, western TN
and much of western KY. However, farther down to the south into
northern LA, far southeast AR and northern MS, the antecedent
conditions are notably drier with much higher FFG values.

Therefore, the high-end threat for significant flash flooding and
locally catastrophic impacts will continue to be over areas a bit
farther north, inclusive of multiple major metropolitan areas that
will see extreme rainfall potential. Areas farther south will be a
bit more conditional with the threat, but will also still likely
see flash flooding concerns with potential for significant impacts
given the extreme rainfall rate potential. Additional localized
Flash Flood Emergency level impacts overall remain a threat
heading into the evening hours, and this situation will continue
to be closely monitored.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Fnn6fJQ5whc6VQMHy1b3neaQVWPSoDMkQCUmixC0VGJUJ3YCzw0D_ewIeYIVPJ6sOct= 7OspbwYmv0reS7mTHgr2mBM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...ILN...IND...JAN...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG... OHX...PAH...SGF...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...
NWC...

LAT...LON 38838648 38688465 37738437 36768538 35568736=20
34398894 33149048 32299154 31699282 31479380=20
31699485 32199497 33259453 34599348 36059201=20
37209047 38198882=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052245
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-060430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0130
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
644 PM EDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052244Z - 060430Z

SUMMARY...Inflow convection into the much more robust showers and
storms over northern Louisiana has been intensifying over the past
few hours. Daily record precipitable water in the column is
supporting convection with very efficient warm-rain processes.
Localized rainfall rates to 2 inches per hour are expected. Flash
flooding is possible, especially in urban areas, small streams and
creeks, and other flood-prone, low-lying areas.

DISCUSSION...An impressive low level jet is advecting incredibly
moist air from the Gulf northward on 40-45 kt southerly winds from
925 through 850 mb. This has pushed PWATs into record territory at
Lake Charles. The storms are being driven by a very slow moving
upper level low and associated surface cold front that are
providing ample lift to support storms that have been producing
rainfall rates to 2 inches per hour near and just northeast of
Houston. This surface based convection will continue into the
evening hours as none of the ingredients supporting very heavy
rainfall will be abating. Further, recent heavy rainfall across
the bayous of Louisiana have lowered the thresholds needed for
flooding caused by these storms as they slowly track east across
far southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.

CAMs guidance has struggled by underdoing both the coverage and
rainfall intensity of these storms so far. However, there is
reasonable agreement that the heaviest rainfall over the next 6
hours (for southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana) will be across
the southeasternmost counties in Texas and the southwesternmost
parishes of Louisiana. Additional inflow convection may develop
further east towards central Louisiana and Baton Rouge later
tonight in response to the eastward movement of the convection
further north, but there's considerably more uncertainty for the
eastern half of the MPD area.

Given the storms from Houston north and east have developed into a
training pattern with additional storms forming on the front edge
of the line near Houston, this pattern of training is likely to
continue into the evening hours given the very slow movement of
the parent cold front causing these heaviest storms. Flash
flooding is possible with these training storms, especially in
southeast Texas closest to the heaviest storms. Impacts are most
likely in urban areas around and the eastern suburbs of Houston,
in already full streams and creeks, and flood-prone low-lying
areas.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7biR7nHxootvLUv5Wj5Z8zVrTIJhXtlWsjMklbNl1sH6mP0x7whwBUtUF1JntcuPPYOh= Gq1DwLoM9ZR7vhc6R8e2SXo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 31909174 31829127 31619117 30809146 30139184=20
29549215 29579267 29769335 29629425 29169496=20
29459553 29979542 30519524 30859508 31239487=20
31579467 31579464 31449396 31549321 31859239=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052341
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-060530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0131
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
741 PM EDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...Southern Appalachians and Mid-to-Upper Ohio
Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 052340Z - 060530Z

SUMMARY...Storms racing eastward at the nose of a robust low level
jet will likely cause additional flash flooding due to
rainfall rates up to 1.5 inches per hour occurring over areas hard
hit by recent heavy rainfall. Flash flooding likely.

DISCUSSION... The leading edge of a robust low level jet will
continue to feed weakening storms as they race eastward towards
the southern Appalachians and portions of the mid-to-upper Ohio
Valley. While the storms with the heaviest rainfall rates will
remain at the leading/eastern edge of the precipitation shield,
they will be able to overcome low FFGs from heavy rainfall this
past Wednesday and Thursday to further aggravate ongoing river and
stream flooding. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are broadly
expected, which in turn will cause additional flash flooding,
especially in low-lying, urban, and small creeks and streams.

Rates with the leading line of storms are generally up to 1.5
inches per hour. Given areal hourly FFGs between 3/4 and 1 inch
per hour in much of eastern Kentucky, West Virginia and far
southern Ohio, the leading line should induce additional flash
flooding as they move through. The plume of rainfall behind the
storms will persist for a few hours following the initial line of
storms which will further aggravate flooding as the newly risen
streams and creeks likely overflow their banks.

The storms are encountering an environment that is increasingly
hostile to them, so they should continue weakening as they press
eastward into eastern Kentucky and West Virginia. The weakening of
the LLJ to 15-25 kt as well as MUCAPE values only up to 1,000 J/kg
should support the continued weakening of the storms. However,
much more potent moisture and instability further southwest but
upwind along the line should allow the moderate rainfall (with
rates generally below an inch per hour) to persist well into the
evening hours.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8UKUIH8WltSq-jzU__W6rUpl3XX2lsuaIgdVx04bSYLx5gZIRfR2y5BNvOZgBVnEQo3-= thuonAf3Z-V3kUAC31jM_vs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39448169 39408134 38898066 38308049 37588058=20
36688144 36058257 35668630 36018650 36478574=20
36768530 37428447 38168426 38608446 38628445=20
38868472 38868354 38938312 39068256 39238211=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060043
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-060630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0132
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
843 PM EDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-South from Northern Louisiana
through Southern Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 060042Z - 060630Z

SUMMARY...Strong convection producing rates to 2.5 inches per hour
and training storms are likely to cause new flash flooding in many
areas that have been spared much rain from previous days. Flash
flooding likely with considerable flash flooding probable in areas
that have not received much rain in previous days.

DISCUSSION...Training storms moving NNE along a very slow moving
cold front are drawing abundant Gulf moisture from an impressively
robust 50 kt LLJ streaming parallel to the front. Individual cells
associated with the training storms have a history of producing
rainfall rates to 2 inches per hour. With the end of the diurnal
period, the typical strengthening of the LLJ should support the
strongest cells intensifying further through the evening as they
are very efficiently using warm rain processes to result in these
very high rainfall rates.

CAMs guidance has been very slow with these storms further to the
north, but the lack of eastward progress in this portion of the
South has been in decent agreement in the CAMs, which supports the aforementioned strengthening of the storms as the LLJ
reintensifies.

Fortunately, all of the storms with the highest rainfall rates now
have moved south and east of the areas that have been hit hardest
by the heavy rains over the past 3 days. Thus, they are moving
over areas now with significantly higher FFGs and soils that are
far more capable of absorbing at least some of the heavy rainfall
before it converts to runoff as compared with areas north and west
in the stratiform rain. Northern and western areas of the MPD area
that have moved to stratiform rain have been hard hit in recent
days, and the stratiform rain, while much lower in overall rates,
will still completely convert to additional runoff, and will
contribute to continued flash flooding.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!69riJZDaqZsZK_E6UBGr6WJWmsnSF-M0MFzUmARbtzItppYrh5BkKCU2sPdfWWfrVEON= Vc64N_XMFDYfHrcfTKPtql4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...MRX...OHX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36058677 35878615 35568538 35108553 33898660=20
32828815 32278975 32209091 31849229 31749325=20
31959365 33179259 33929149 35698928=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060127
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-060530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0133
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
927 PM EDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Areas affected...Lower Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 060126Z - 060530Z

SUMMARY...Stratiform rain with rainfall rates up to a half inch
per hour is prolonging ongoing life-threatening flash flooding
across northeast Arkansas, northern Tennessee, and western
Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...An area of stratiform rain on the northern and
western edge of the moisture plume and convection producing
incredibly heavy rainfall across northern Louisiana, Mississippi,
and southern Tennessee will continue to weaken and dissipate from
northwest to southeast through the evening hours. Heavy rain is no
longer expected in this area, but the stratiform rain ongoing in
this area is likely to continue for the next several hours for
southern and eastern portions of this MPD area, and should end
within the next hour of northern and western areas.

This stratiform rain is producing rainfall rates of up to a half
inch per hour, and for many areas is less than a quarter of an
inch per hour. While this alone would not be discussion-worthy,
given the many reports of a foot or more of rain over the past 3
days, much of which fell earlier today, even this light rain is
prolonging ongoing life-threatening flash flooding across much of
this region. As the convection causing the stratiform rain shifts
to the south, so too will the stratiform. FFGs in this entire MPD
region are less than a half inch per hour, and in many areas under
a quarter of an inch per hour, so even this rain is sufficient to
prolong and in some areas perhaps worsen ongoing flooding. Drier
air impinging on the precipitation shield from the north should
continue eroding the precipitation shield, which will finally
fully and completely end this historic rainfall event across this
area.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7unvdMqqVXhPOOh1hp9eEUl5K-TOvsZJnKeOjoVCwRbOHwrXU3Z_XABvI74UJaA8vxNA= 852aRTGZboelW2eTltQMZfo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38798478 38758475 38528444 38078433 37488448=20
36968508 36148647 36098690 36018851 35568966=20
34899052 34839053 34359118 33749192 33539240=20
33729268 34449212 35259166 35569142 36089088=20
36489021 36888923 37428821 37678763 37898714=20
38208641 38628553 38798509=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060732
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-061330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0134
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 AM EDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Areas affected...southeast LA and south-central MS into
north-central AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 060730Z - 061330Z

Summary...Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr will lead to localized totals
of 2-4". Scattered instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...A QLCS is slowly traversing the Southeast this
morning, with the most intense convection located across much MS
and moving into AL. Rainfall rates have been as high as 1-2"/hr in
this area, and those rates are expected to continue with a
mesoscale environment characterized by ML CAPE of 500-2000 J/kg,
precipitable water values of 1.4-1.7 inches (near the max moving
average, per JAN sounding climatology), and deep layer (0-6 km)
shear of 50-60 kts.

A consensus of hi-res models suggests that short term (3-6 hour)
localized totals of 2-4" can be expected, which is likely to at
least locally continue to eclipse associated Flash Flood Guidance
(FFG) of 2.5-3.0". While the line of convection is relatively slow
to move eastward, thankfully it continues to gradually move into
areas of MS/AL that are much drier are capable of handling heavy
rainfall. Scattered (to possibly numerous) instances of flash
flooding are considered likely.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ylv84Z1m-jjtUsN3NR1DXMO2sMrW6n_iy0xVZQrUFNEhDa0Q0hHODKoQAkY6iaOCjZD= Q80OMObHBP20UnqJgIqbU0s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LIX...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34928531 34518496 33808559 32978664 32128740=20
31338814 30128945 29759009 29979071 30449143=20
31119156 32279055 33708896 34578737 34898632=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061236
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-061835-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0135
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
836 AM EDT Sun Apr 06 2025

Areas affected...much of central/southern Alabama into western
Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061235Z - 061835Z

Summary...A couple of slow-moving MCS continues to produce several
areas of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates across west-central Alabama and
far southeastern Mississippi. These trends are expected to
continue eastward across the discussion area, posing isolated to
scattered flash flood potential especially in low-lying and
sensitive areas.

Discussion...A couple of slow-moving linear convective segments
(one from GAD to TCL and another from near MEI to PIB) were
migrating slowly eastward across the discussion area this morning.
The linear segments are oriented largely parallel to fast flow
aloft, with propagation being the primary driver for eastward
movement. Additionally, the pre-convective airmass (characterized
by 1.5+ inch PW values, strong low-level shear, and ~1000 J/kg
MLCAPE) was supporting efficient rainfall processes, with 1-2.5
inch/hr rain rates focused across western AL and southeastern MS
nearer the strongest instability. These rates were approaching
FFG thresholds especially along the BHM/TCL corridor where ~2
inch/hr rain rates and urban land surfaces were resulting in local
peaks in MRMS Flash responses. Higher FFGs south of that area
were resulting in more isolated flash flood potential in the short
term.

Over the next 6 hours or so, MCSs should continue eastward
progress across the discussion area, although some slowing of
speed may occur with mid/upper forcing remaining well west of the
area. Surface heating ahead of the MCSs may also provide
opportunity for open-warm-sector initiation that may support more
opportunities for cell mergers through the afternoon hours. The
greatest concern for flash flooding will reside south of I-20 and
north of I-85 (generally from Birmingham to Montgomery to Auburn)
where rain rates are most likely to exceed local FFG through 18Z.

Farther northeast, convection should reach the Atlanta Metro area
and portions of northern Georgia, but storms seem to be outpacing
the northeastward extent of the most unstable air across Alabama.
Isolated flash flooding is possible in this regime as storms reach
Atlanta by around 15Z or so.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!45s0Hvi48YIxX4L6P5bHqj_CCqLKMfODNcOaxVWSpgjjRoPlOpzcIAfN3JT-M8Pb1O5u= CDTAA-4prmjhVrjOkP7q7a0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34458520 34248383 33328378 32418436 31588540=20
30968719 30858838 32658852 33668756=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222222
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-230300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0158
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
621 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Areas affected...Southern LA...Southern MS...West central AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222221Z - 230300Z

Summary...Scattered to numerous slow moving thunderstorms, some
with rainfall rates exceeding two inches per hour, are likely to
continue through the evening hours. Some instances of flash
flooding will be possible where cells become most persistent.

Discussion...Convection continues to develop and persist south of
a weak, stalling surface front and wave of low pressure. Regional
Doppler radars are indicating multi-cellular clusters with some
back-building convection, with the most impressive radar
signatures just north of the Interstate 10 corridor in
south-central Louisiana, and a second area slow dropping south
near the MS/AL border. Enhanced-V signatures on GOES visible and
infrared satellite is also apparent, and thus evidence that these
cells are becoming anchored in place for an hour or more in some
cases. MRMS rainfall estimates of 2+ inches per hour have been
observed, and although flash flood guidance values are generally
high across most of the outlook area, this could be enough to
cause some flooding issues in poor drainage and urban areas.

The latest CAM guidance suite generally agrees on the idea of
scattered QPF maxima of 2-4 inches through 10 pm local time, with
most of this falling within a two-hour time period in any given
location. HREF exceedance probabilities of flash flood guidance
are relatively low, but probably higher in reality given what is
currently happening. Once these multi-cell clusters become more
outflow dominant later this evening, the flooding threat with
these cells should diminish.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9VJorr0aPCRxno_U1sseDK1brsJ-HQX-GiSAGx8bN17zlE1GOXMLggLkdlYIlUeNmNip= bC1oKRAgskMQKrv9Tq49cPE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33228908 33228842 32648804 31418847 30768898=20
30518954 30469060 30209165 30189221 30369306=20
30969371 31529342 31779267 31849210 31879112=20
32239035 32718970=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230228
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-230700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0159
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1027 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Areas affected...Northwest TX...Western OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230227Z - 230700Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms are expected to persist over
southern portions of the Texas Panhandle and extending to
west-central Oklahoma through 7Z tonight. Cell mergers and cell
training may lead to some instances of flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars continue to indicate both
supercells and multi-cell clusters that have had a history of
heavy rainfall over the past few hours that have developed ahead
of the dry line. In addition, GOES-16 infrared satellite imagery
shows expanding cold anvil canopies with the convective complexes,
especially so with the MCS over the southern Texas Panhandle where
the flash flood threat is greatest over the next several hours.
Rainfall rates with the strongest and most persistent convection
will likely exceed two inches per hour at times, increasing the
threat of flash flooding in those areas.

The latest CAM guidance suite is likely a little undergone with
forecast QPF totals through 7Z, although the FV3 is on the higher
end of the guidance. There will likely be some 2-4 inch totals on
a localized basis, with much of this falling in a two hour time
period for any given location. This activity is expected to
gradually become more progressive as the MCS matures and moves
eastward.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!69fkd65H5_vuI8g3O56S8XNSq9PA_mz6PWWQ5zIAmVdlIOF5vlVLy9QGF6JCR7DPkYaF= GGrT-RlbgKhvQABe-i1pfUI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37149929 36899837 36109799 35009821 34109857=20
33529909 33009981 32590098 32530215 32840277=20
33240300 33900300 34420263 35010172 35740079=20
36660004=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 230627
FFGMPD
TXZ000-231100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0160
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Areas affected...portions of central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230626Z - 231100Z

Summary...An eastward-moving convective complex is spreading
0.5-1.5 inch/hr rain rates across the Texas Hill Country
currently. On its present track, this complex could reach the
Austin/San Antonio Metropolitan Corridor and pose a risk of
isolated, urban flash flooding in the next couple hours or so
(through 09Z/4am CDT).

Discussion...Convection across southwest Texas and the Hill
Country has managed to grow upscale into an eastward-moving
complex, with persistence well beyond that indicated by most prior
model guidance. This complex is being maintained by considerable
mid-level organization and a mature cold pool that continues to
propagate into a gradually more moist and unstable downstream
airmass (1.5 inch PW, 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). The complex is currently
on the eastern edge of stronger low-level flow/shear, which lends
some uncertainty with regard to eastward persistence. However,
recent NAM/RAP low-level wind fields are progged to increase
modestly across the discussion area through 09Z. This, combined
with weak convective inhibition downstream suggests that heavier
downpours could make it into the Austin/San Antonio Metropolitan
Corridor by around 09Z/4am CDT or so.

If this complex can hold together, areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain
rates should affect urbanized areas and pose an isolated risk of
flash flooding. This risk should mainly focus around urbanized
and low-lying/sensitive locations, as nearby FFGs/soil moisture
profiles indicate less-sensitive ground conditions especially east
of the Austin/San Antonio areas.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!92bSGB7MsIfxlXOfhH7K6Y9G6z_R8kOec2n6d8bMxoyOtgXuGgmZ5RstDwY6PQgqUnrd= lYOROYJD2PDiQJfsl6EfNks$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 31239839 31089742 30189660 29279677 28809790=20
29190010 29760095 31129922=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231743
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-232341-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0161
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
143 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Areas affected...southeast NC & northeast SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231741Z - 232341Z

Summary...Organized thunderstorms are forming across southeast NC
and coastal SC with some showing signs of backbuilding/limited
movement. Hourly rain totals to 2" with local amounts to 4" are
possible, which would be problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...A frontal boundary lies across the region, oriented
east-northeast to west-southwest, with a weak/elongated wave near
Lake Waccanaw NC, which has shifted southwestward since 12-15z
based on surface observations. Precipitable water values are
~1.3-1.4". ML CAPE across the region appears to be drifting
southwest, with values of 500-1500 J/kg on both sides of the
front, which should increase another 500 J/kg or so this
afternoon. Effective bulk shear of 25-35 kts is organizing the
storms.

The 12z HREF indicates that the heavy rain threat increases
through the afternoon, with the highest rain rates shifting
southwest with time, which fits recent trends in the ML CAPE pool
and RAP mass fields regarding the weak frontal wave's expected
future movement. Recent backbuilding on radar is expected to
continue over the next several hours. Hourly rain totals should
maximize in the 2" range, with local amounts to 4" possible. The
guidance shows a reasonable signal for heavy rain in this region,
with a similar signal. Soils are sandy in this region, which when
combined with minimal rainfall over the past couple of weeks has
led to high flash flood guidance values. Any issues are expected
to be urban, given the expected hourly and overall totals.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4T_ajSQ1-VUK47W6_KDMX7BqVWldPLCAWJitNzA6kPicZs7cPMRFv42WDBh4JcbLmqW0= aFi2yZa1CRLNB6Xw4Ok6eIM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34977727 34687693 34307759 33797790 33807835=20
33687873 33107917 33127980 33988006 34647916=20
34887820=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231842
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-240100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0162
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Areas affected...Ark-La-Tex and East TX through southern and
central MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231900Z - 240100Z

Summary...Increasing convective coverage through the late
afternoon and evening with relatively slow storm motions will
result in widely scattered hourly totals of 1-2". Localized
repeating of efficient rainfall rates may result in 3-6 hour
totals as high as 3-5" (highest chances in the vicinity of the
MS/LA border region). Isolated/localized flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are
increasing in coverage (once again) this afternoon across a
relatively weakly forced, moderately unstable and moist
environment from the Ark-La-Tex through southern and central MS.
One cluster of scattered to numerous is occurring across portions
of southern MS and southeast LA, while another is occurring closer
to the Ark-La-Tex. Most storms have been relatively shallow thus
far (due to some capping between 850-600 mb), but updrafts in the
vicinity of the MS/LA border have begun to reach the LFC in the
past hour or two. Meanwhile, cloud cover associated with remnant
MCVs (from overnight convection across TX) has moved into the
Ark-La-Tex and points south, which has largely suppressed deeper
updrafts (so far). DPVA in association with these MCVs may help to
eventually organized convection (along with associated remnant
upper-level divergence associated with the MCVs, as well as being
on the periphery of modest divergence in association with the left
exit region of a subtropical jet streak near the TX and Mexico
border). The commonality between both areas is relatively weak
southerly low-level flow (primarily guiding storm motions) with
925-850 mb winds between 10-20 kts (and upwind propagation vectors
as weak as 5 kts, generally towards the southeast). In addition,
PWATs generally range from 1.3-1.7 inches (near 90th percentile)
with ML CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Slower storm motions with the
potential for localized backbuilding, outflow boundary collisions,
and cell mergers should present the potential for localized
repeating of 1-2" rainfall rates/hourly totals.

While individual CAMs (including the 12z HREF, 06z RRFSe, and
hourly HRRR/RRFS) all seem to depict varying degrees of randomized
scattered coverage of highly localized 2-5" totals, some
interesting tidbits can be gleaned from the post-processed
statistical output. Both ensemble suites depict high odds (40-80%)
for localized 2" exceedance (per 40-km neighborhood method) and
medium odds (20-50%) for localized 3" exceedance. While 2"
exceedance probs are widespread across the region, there is
distinct clustering in the vicinity of the MS/LA border region for
3" exceedance probs (with the HREF lagging the RRFSe for the
relevant time frame, indicating 21z-03z peak vs. 18z-00z peak).
While 3-6 hour FFGs typically range from 3.0-5.0", prior days
rainfall has resulted in localized sensitivities with FFGs as low
as 2.0-3.0". Isolated/localized flash flooding is possible.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7leZU0rL5bUXzXVrRLZEWZWLOkWRkmhmOtL6qeUB42OpL-fUK9HRMGJAAxnOjLZPWZZs= KtXnvOF4DGd8y1Xh8SB3mVI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...MOB...
SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33919418 33849314 33779211 33529139 33649055=20
33638952 33288826 32258830 31098873 30588987=20
30369082 30119156 30149201 30589314 30169409=20
31129511 31949546 32549618 33399584 33729488=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231845
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-240044-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0163
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Areas affected...northeast KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231844Z - 240044Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and
intensity across northeast KS. Hourly rain totals to 1.75" and
local overall totals to 4" are possible over the next several
hours, which would challenge modest flash flood guidance values.

Discussion...ML CAPE has been increasing while CIN has been
increasing across eastern KS, which is leading to a convective
uptick across northeast KS in the vicinity of a front.=20
Precipitable water values are near 1", and ML CAPE has risen to
just over 2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear remains under 25 kts,
at the moment. There have been signs of backbuilding and cell
mergers north of Randolph KS as of late, and the convective
pattern is slowly growing.

The mesoscale guidance suggests two pulses of activity -- one
early, which is ongoing near the mesoscale warm front, and one
later on toward the end of the MPD period which appears to be
caused by convection along the mesoscale cold front which edges
eastward. Inflow at 850 hPa is forecast to increase, which should
lead to effective bulk shear increasing to 25+ kts and increasing
convective organization with time. Assuming some hail
contamination, hourly rain totals to 1.75" are ongoing due to
backbuilding and cell mergers, and there's no reason to expect
that to change much over the next several hours. This leads to
the idea that the mesoscale guidance is too low on overall
rainfall amounts. Moistening of the atmosphere locally should
raise the precipitable water values above 1.25". Overall rain
totals should maximize around 3-4", which would challenge the
modest flash flood guidance values in the area. Any flash
flooding would be isolated to widely scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-zVn48V_Ux1xp2tktEU9p1x7YqeA_W6d5MkCMNybACj-kO4xHxkLdHQVGhX7ncAStcnr= B8gousFspoCTrolmajQHmv4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 40109594 39789510 39139510 38579664 38599781=20
39289783 40069758=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 231929
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-240127-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0164
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern GA and southern SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231927Z - 240127Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have formed across
portions of eastern GA and southern SC. Hourly rain totals to 2"
with overall totals to 5" are possible.

Discussion...An effective front is helping to foster increasing
convection from eastern GA across southern SC near and east of a
weak wave. Precipitable water values of 1.3-1.4" lurk in this
region, as well as ML CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective bulk
shear of ~30 kts. Water vapor imagery appears to show the region
at the base of a mid-level shortwave moving through the southern
Appalachians. Radar imagery shows hourly rain totals near 2" as
of late due to either cell mergers or backbuilding, which should
be the maximum expected in this environment. The highest local
overall total has been in the 5" range, which is also the maximum
expected.=20

The 18z RAP shows increasing convergence along the boundary,
particularly in southeast GA, over the next couple hours while the
weak wave recedes to the west-southwest. The 12z HREF shows the
potential of heavy rainfall in this area for the next five hours.=20 Thereafter, CIN should develop after sunset and help shut down
convection. Until then, hourly totals to 2" and overall totals to
5" are anticipated. Flash flood guidance values are high as there
hasn't been much rainfall over the past week or two. Any flash
flood issues that arise are expected to be in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67DyTSWjLVaGHv2l3q3H4RIF0RaL4BmwhQF9cT0_01ySvIyFSCKFziBhfN60nuPyyvKm= r5_jCqrVdI0y3FPpMgcWMso$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33738123 33668043 32987959 32038095 32358231=20
32698297 33128336 33448294 33678205=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232207
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-240406-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0165
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
607 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Areas affected...portions of western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232206Z - 240406Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage in and near
western KS. Hourly rain amounts to 1.75" with local totals to 4"
are possible.

Discussion...The atmosphere in western KS is warming and becoming
uncapped (decreasing CIN) this afternoon as warm air advects in
from the south and southwest within the southern and southeast
quadrant of a retrograding circulation apparent on radar imagery
just southwest of Goodland KS. Precipitable water values are
0.91" per Goodland's 21z sounding, moist for the High Plains. ML
CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg lies across the region. Effective bulk
shear is 25-40 kts, which is enough to organize convection
linearly in a confluent way from the southwest.

Expectations are for increasing coverage for the next few hours
before activity attempts to accelerate east to northeastward. The
mesoscale guidance has been showing upward trends in their QPF
since 12z across this region. Interestingly, the mesoscale warm
front in western KS isn't expected to make much additional headway
northward, per recent RAP guidance, though ML CAPE does overrun it
some distance to the north. Hourly rain amounts to 1.75" with
local totals to 4" appear possible where cells train or merge or
where occasional mesocyclones form and try to align. There's a
wide range in the flash flood values across western KS, though the
area has been dry the past couple of weeks. Any flash flooding is
more likely to be in urban areas.=20=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7kstM5zEixMFgkbLcggjGsbUwC5upH5jYdIme9AJE3K1DonxdqP3mTGtgN9AaIKlotGj= NRtXBEMGSP1gCgJUJu_m7OY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GID...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39870111 39629940 37769975 36880117 36800291=20
38110314 38840244=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232355
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-240454-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0166
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
755 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Areas affected...in and near portions of western & northern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232354Z - 240454Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with some level of organization should
persist in and near portions of western and northern MS in the
short term. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" with local amounts to
5" are possible until thunderstorms fade this evening/tonight.

Discussion...The mesoscale pattern in and near MS is chaotic, with
a grand boundary collision coming shortly as the outflow
boundaries from the cold pools near the LA/AR border, southwest
TN, and eastern MS meet near the lower portion of the MS River
Valley. Upstream, a strong shortwave is moving by the ArkLaTex,
eastward into the region enhancing upper level divergence.=20
Precipitable water values are 1.25-1.5". ML CAPE is 1000-2000
J/kg, but CIN has set in near the LA/AR border and the central
MS/AL border where temperatures have fallen below 70F. Effective
bulk shear is around 25 kts, allowing some storms to attain some
level of organization, but there are a lot of cell mergers
apparent in recent radar imagery. Recent hourly rain amounts have
been up to 2.5" in several spots near the MS/LA border as well as
near Tchula MS.

While there are some location differences between the 18z HREF and
12z RRFS probabilities of 0.5"+ of rain in an hour, they point to
the region of highest instability between the various outflow
boundaries. After 00z, there should be a slow waning in coverage
of the heavy rainfall, due to both increasing CIN and decreasing
ML CAPE in and near western and northern MS after all the outflow
boundaries collide and the atmosphere stabilizes. Until then,
hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 5" remain
possible, which could exceed flash flood guidance values and be
most problematic in urban areas.

Roth=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!77SPtgatE5YpErfP9df76jPRGvSCGpLK5E782E-SN-PU1J1HGztd_NvgbyTuVl_itvlf= OJA8XCyMIVejpfdL-nzLGa0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34578912 33718927 33168965 32479048 31869051=20
30869034 30469124 31049186 31679261 32299220=20
33079141 33509102=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240914
FFGMPD
LAZ000-241400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0167
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
514 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Areas affected...south-central LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240912Z - 241400Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will pose an
isolated flash flood threat to portions of south-central LA over
the next 3-5 hours. Slow cell movement with potential for 2 to 3+
in/hr rates will exist.

Discussion...Local radar imagery from KPOE and neighboring sites
showed a relatively small and largely warm-topped cluster of
showers and thunderstorms over south-central LA at 09Z. Rainfall
over the past few hours over LA has produced an outflow boundary
which extended 20-30 miles south of and roughly parallel to I-10
from near Lake Charles to near Abbeville. Modest low level flow
atop this boundary and low level speed convergence (seen via VAD
wind plots at 925 mb and 850 mb) appeared to be contributing
factors in the location of the cluster of heavy rain, factors not
being modeled well by recent RAP runs. Enhanced divergence within
the left-exit region of an upper level jet max over south-central
TX into the western Gulf was also possibly aiding with lift across
the region.

While this cluster has been in place for several hours in some
form, there are growing concerns for slowing of cell movement
given recent radar trends. Continued overrunning of the
rain-cooled boundary is expected to continue over the next 3-5
hours with components of slow moving/backbuilding/training
allowing for localized heavy rainfall to continue across
south-central LA. The environment is forecast to remain mostly
unchanged over the next 2-3 hours and additional potential for 2
to 3+ in/hr rainfall rates will remain along with localized storm
totals over 5 inches possible in a relatively short period of
time. These high rainfall rates will be most concerning with any
overlap of urban or other areas with poor drainage.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8xydkvqgJw6N_oHudG9lbPun5o1hx_Bigy_e9qfIKhxomhd60fAYnsXG48W7COMhWDuK= dEkuqQpXjdRhhYGoQzppQsA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30999214 30969128 30849089 30459061 29939068=20
29779159 29919251 30219280 30699269=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241014
FFGMPD
TXZ000-241500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0168
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
613 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Areas affected...northwestern to west-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241011Z - 241500Z

Summary...Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr (locally higher) within
areas of training could produce localized flash flooding from 2-4
inches of rain through 15Z over northwestern to west-central TX.

Discussion...The merging of two convective clusters across northwest/west-central TX may lead to localized flash flooding
over the next 3-5 hours. Regional radar imagery at 0945Z showed a
largely forward propagating linear convective line from
west-central OK into west-central TX north of SWW. A second
(smaller and weaker) convective line was observed to the south,
over west-central TX from DYS to BBD. The western-most edges of
both convective lines were in the process of merging just north of
I-20 in the vicinity of DYS. 850 mb VAD winds showed 30 to 40 kt
from the south at KSJT and KDYX, overrunning the outflow
associated with the stronger, northern convective cluster with
recent slowing along its western end.

Mean steering flow was from the SSW to SW at 15-20 kt, and of
similar orientation to the 850 mb flow across northwestern to
west-central TX, allowing for short-term training. Expectations
are for the northern complex to continue advancing toward the
southeast, following short term Corfidi vector forecasts. The
orientation of the two systems is expected to evolve like a
zipper, with merging of the two outflows advancing a burst of
convection from west to east. Merging and short term training will
likely support rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr (locally higher) and
short term rainfall totals of 2-4 inches through 15Z and these
rains may produce localized flash flooding. While an expected
weakening of the low level jet through the remainder of the
morning hours may allow for an overall weakening, modest
diffluence aloft and lingering instability of ~1000 J/kg may allow
for convective maintenance for at least another 2-4 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_SsciM_Ua-mjzwCWvKm7QpC7IlBo7CGMGRieLpcAISNLoo78aywX001glk6JVckde8-T= owgvJJVyHshXbg1uKSfOXUQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33669858 33569779 33199732 32749713 32309745=20
32119815 32109919 32390041 33030060 33409993=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241401
FFGMPD
LAZ000-241800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0169
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Areas affected...southeast LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241400Z - 241800Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding likely to continue and possibly
expand to localities farther east (including the New Orleans
metro) with additional isolated totals of 3-5" possible.

Discussion...A persistent cluster of thunderstorms from overnight
has grown into a mini MCS this morning, though GOES-East infrared
imagery indicates only sporadic cold cloud tops with a relatively
unimpressive appearance. Radar imagery tells a much different
story, as shallow updrafts have been incredibly persistent with
relatively slow storm motions (KHDC VWP indicating 10-20 kt
low-level flow), backbuilding along the southern and southwest
flanks, and upwind propagation towards the southeast (into the
low-level flow). With SPC's SFCOA analysis indicating PWATs of
1.5-1.7 inches (near the 90th percentile, per LIX sounding
climatology) and a reservoir of 500-1000 J/kg of ML CAPE directly
to the south and southeast, there are concerns that this small
convective complex will persist through the mid-morning to
mid-day. Crucially, the influence of the left exit region of a
subtropical jet streak (near 75 kts at 250 mb centered over South
TX) is providing both 20-25 kts of effective bulk shear and
enhanced upper-level difluence and lift. The persistence of the
convection (with the aforementioned occasional cold cloud tops
breaking through) suggests that the shear will continue to at
least irregularly support deep convection, and this feedback loop
allows for more rising motion and increased divergence aloft to
support further new updrafts and initiation. Localized areas with
the most efficient backbuilding and repeating of 1-3"/hr rainfall
rates has resulted in estimated hourly totals of as much as 2-4"
per MRMS (with KLFT recording back to back hours of 2.34" and
2.41" of rainfall earlier this morning). Past 6-hour MRMS
estimates indicate scattered totals of 3-6" (with some of the
heaviest and largest areas in the vicinity of the Lafayette and
Baton Rouge metro areas).

Hi-res CAM suites from 00z failed to capture virtually any of this
activity, though more recent hourly runs of the HRRR and RRFS have
done a much better job initializing and persisting convection
(with the RRFS notably catching on to this trend much earlier than
the HRRR). Analyzing these most recent model runs (10z onward)
going forward, the output QPF suggests the potential for
additional 3-5" localized amounts. As detailed above, the
short-term trends and current mesoscale environment supports these
amounts, and the heaviest amounts should continue to shift towards
the east with upwind propagation (potentially putting the New
Orleans metro area into greater threat over the next several
hours). Ongoing flash flooding (some significant and life
threatening) is likely to continue, possibly spreading eastward to
areas that have seen little to no rainfall thus far.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5N9wt-OBb_mHc8SOlveQ8_orqihjzyBNmMnvotN0YMlp3nwwm_S4HY4wVzVzxOFhjss1= eIM2-KxOG8zkn_QiXAtouDw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30989140 30879083 30709028 30388974 29808987=20
29449035 29639090 29799159 29979225 30789197=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251839
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-251840-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0175
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
840 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Areas affected...portions north-central MS into northwestern AL
and Middle TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251240Z - 251840Z

Summary...Intensifying thunderstorm activity will support 3-6 hour
localized totals as high as 3-5" through midday. Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...A cluster of thunderstorms is becoming more intense
and organized this morning over portions of the MS Delta,
supported by a mid-level shortwave/trough and enhanced low-level
convergence (southerlies from the Gulf and westerlies over the
Ark-La-Tex). While the influence of the subtropical jet to the
southwest is waning relative to the past few days, the
aforementioned shortwave is providing ample diffluence aloft as
the area is situated between the polar and subtropical jets. Per
SPC's SFCOA analysis at 12z, the mesoscale environment is
characterized by SB CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg over MS (with 500 J/kg
or less over north AL and Middle TN, but anticipated to increase),
PWATs of 1.4-1.8 inches (between the 90th percentile and max
moving average, per JAN sounding climatology), and effective bulk
shear near 20 kts. The combination of moderate instability, highly
anomalous moisture, and sufficient bulk shear should continue to
maintain relatively organized convection.

Hi-res CAMs are in relatively good agreement with regard to
expected localized amounts going forward, with both the 06z HREF
and 00z REFS probability-matched mean QPF indicating localized
totals as high as 2-3" (though the exact placement of these higher
totals varies quite a bit, as evidenced by 06z HREF and 00z REFS
Ensemble Agreement Scale 1" exceedance probabilities of 10% or
less). More recent runs (since 06z) of the HRRR have been quite a
bit more robust with QPF, indicating totals as high as 3-5"
through 18z (and the latest observational trends are supportive of
this, as convection is beginning to locally train from southwest
to northeast over portions of the MS Delta with MRMS hourly
estimates near 2.5"). With much of this QPF expected to fall in as
little as a 3-hr period, associated FFGs generally range from
1.5-3.0" (with 6-hr FFGs ranging from 3.0-5.0"). Isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding are possible.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4HV3v4pPP987NOVoFP8ZRSND8srVIJVosByvDaE5xv-cqIRjgNUL4e72jc_TVoCx-gUY= eQtrHTxNW75JIIpJ8tU3joI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35918727 35678623 34918587 33648730 32838905=20
32829082 33449104 34069020 34408980 35308870=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251845
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-260030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0176
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Areas affected...Northeast LA...Southern MS...Southwest AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251845Z - 260030Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of slow moving thunderstorms in proximity to
older MCV across E MS may result in multiple rounds of intense
rainfall potentially resulting in widely scattered spots of 2-4"
inches inducing possible focused flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic denotes an older mid-level MCV
along the southwestern flank of the main upper-level trough
exiting through the Lower Ohio Valley. The subtle outflow jet to
the north continues to provide broad scale ascent to maintain the
vorticity center. In the lower levels, this has resulted in solid moisture/instability advection across the central Gulf within
solid WAA regime providing strong moisture flux convergence along
and downstream of the MCV. Instability axis of 1000 J/kg across
central AL increases toward 2000 J/kg (MLCAPE) across the I-10
corridor from central LA toward southern AL providing solid
additional buoyancy for broader overturning even upstream along
the trailing southwest flank of the MCV/confluence axis. Deep
layer moisture lags a bit to the west of the instability with
1.5-1.7" total PWat Valleys but proximity and solid surface Tds
values in the lower 70s to allow for efficient rainfall production
for the cells. The combination should allow for rates of
1.5-2"/hr.

Cells in the warm sector of the wave will remain slow moving
waiting for the upstream forcing/inflow may result in hour or so
duration. Minus a small zone of reduced FFG across E MS north of
Meridian, FFG values are likely not to be exceeded given totals of
2-2.5" with the first round. However, given increasing density of
coverage, potential for mergers and a secondary bout of similar
intense rates may result in more scattered areas reaching 2-3.5"
over a 3hr period and potentially result in localized incident or
two of flash flooding.

Further southwest across E LA/SW MS, winds are likely to respond
with confluent veering as the MCV continues to press eastward.=20
500-1000mb thickness suggestion some increased spread and
therefore reduced propagation vectors toward the southeast though
the late afternoon into evening hours. Additionally, any outflow
boundary is more probable to orient NW to SE and be a bit more
orthogonal to the veered low level flow resulting in some
potential for back-building, though with weaker/weakening flow
convergence may become more scattered in nature. Slower cell
motions at the trailing edge, also suggest increased duration for
spots of 2-4" here as well. Proximity to I-10 and urban locales
that dot along it, further increase potential for possible
incidents of flash flooding as well.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_vByYc_g22sQd655tAbs9W3PESykLNxpuPF20vxHQsOm4nUgJSvpBakwr-YnB74OMgyW= -YJ_syZ94oasKLzqI8HlXbQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33578771 33268690 32528676 31868722 31248809=20
30548963 30439051 30589140 31419153 31969013=20
33028910 33448844=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251917
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-252300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0177
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern AL and southern Middle TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251910Z - 252300Z

Summary...Thunderstorms initiating along a gust front with the
potential for training with associated flash flood threat of 1-2"
localized totals.

Discussion...A gust front from earlier cells this morning has
begun to initiate new convection, along a line from just west of
Birmingham to Huntsville. The mesoscale environment along and out
ahead of this line is characterized by ML CAPE 500-1000 J/kg,
PWATs of 1.3-1.6 inches (near or above the 90th percentile, per
BMX sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear of 15-20 kts.
Hourly rainfall estimates (per MRMS) are already approaching an
inch, and the 850-300 mb mean flow is nearly parallel to the line
of developing storms. In addition, upwind propagation vectors
suggest only limited forward propagation towards the east, which
may increase residence time of training storms.

Latest HRRR runs seem to be initializing the position of the gust
front fairly well, and indicate 1-2" localized totals (through
23z) along an apparent training axis. The 12z HREF suggests
somewhat higher totals are possible, indicating 20-30% chances for
localized 2" exceedance (per 40-km neighborhood exceedance
probabilities). Lastly, the experimental RRFS and REFS depict
similar solutions as well (with 2" exceedance probabilities from
the 06z REFS also being 20-30%).

Rainfall totals over the past 3 days across the region generally
range from 1-3", and NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-1 m soil moisture indicates
values above the 90th percentile for much of the area. These wet=20
antecedent soil conditions suggest that localized instances of
flash flooding are possible along this axis of storms.

Churchill/Shieh

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-U_RLt0TnGx40yDrouEv__3XgG0OyHG4y6ATzKHaa8Djx9NmQmIm7XEUn79pclyXK4Uv= qvDCMHS8ntEzmj9HpSTYmq0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35578579 35078490 33808564 33118663 33118778=20
33328794 33608767 34328716 34718697 35168678=20
35458648=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251934
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-252300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0177
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern AL and southern Middle TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251910Z - 252300Z

Summary...Thunderstorms initiating along a gust front with the
potential for training with associated flash flood threat of 1-2"
localized totals.

Discussion...A gust front from earlier cells this morning has
begun to initiate new convection, along a line from just west of
Birmingham to Huntsville. The mesoscale environment along and out
ahead of this line is characterized by ML CAPE 500-1000 J/kg,
PWATs of 1.3-1.6 inches (near or above the 90th percentile, per
BMX sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear of 15-20 kts.
Hourly rainfall estimates (per MRMS) are already approaching an
inch, and the 850-300 mb mean flow is nearly parallel to the line
of developing storms. In addition, upwind propagation vectors
suggest only limited forward propagation towards the east, which
may increase residence time of training storms.

Latest HRRR runs seem to be initializing the position of the gust
front fairly well, and indicate 1-2" localized totals (through
23z) along an apparent training axis. The 12z HREF suggests
somewhat higher totals are possible, indicating 20-30% chances for
localized 2" exceedance (per 40-km neighborhood exceedance
probabilities). Lastly, the experimental RRFS and REFS depict
similar solutions as well (with 2" exceedance probabilities from
the 06z REFS also being 20-30%).

Rainfall totals over the past 3 days across the region generally
range from 1-3", and NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-1 m soil moisture indicates
values above the 90th percentile for much of the area. These wet=20
antecedent soil conditions suggest that localized instances of
flash flooding are possible along this axis of storms.

Churchill/Shieh

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8H0tZCjGAkuYGNcEepY6SJ4-Ho3-2yu_iHFrnMD-4vwvWr-UKKgqLCvvBCSuqJVAsSwd= VoESYXG1whgbf0debKwh5ls$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35578579 35078490 33808564 33118663 33118778=20
33328794 33608767 34328716 34718697 35168678=20
35458648=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251958
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-260130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0178
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Areas affected...Northern Ohio...Northwest Pennsylvania...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252000Z - 260130Z

SUMMARY...Unseasonable moisture allowing for shallow but efficient
showers and thunderstorms with 1"/hr rates and potential for
repeats and totals over 2", resulting in possible scattered flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...CIRA LPW and RAP analysis shows strong warm conveyor
belt extending along and ahead of broad large scale trof across
the Mississippi Valley into Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valley.=20
Southwesterly 850mb flow and core of 1.5" TPW noses northward
across east-central IND into northern Ohio with increasing speed
convergence as 30kts of 850mb flow reduce to 10-15kts across the
area of concern. CIRA LPW percentile on the anomalous moisture
denote a broad area of 95-99th in the surface to 850mb layer (Tds
in the lower 60s) with a bit more focused 95-99th in the 850-700mb
layer across northern OH. Filtered sunshine through broken cirrus
has brought temperatures in the mid-70s resulting in increasing
unstable environment with MLCAPE axis of 1000 J/kg along a similar
west to east axis at the nose of the LLJ/speed convergence. As
such, regional RADAR shows increasing convection, while
overshooting tops/CBs below -60C are breaking out across northwest
OH into north-central ahead of DPVA downstream of shortwave trough
energy crossing central IL/IND attm.=20

So, while instability is not extreme for broad updrafts, the
overall coverage of these cores will increase into the afternoon.
Combine this with orientation of the cores along the instability
axis is fairly parallel to the deeper layer WSW to ENE steering
and may support some scattered repeating of cells. Rates of
1"+/hr are probable so localized totals of 2"+ in 1-3hrs may
result in localized exceedance of FFG values which are generally
1-1.5"/hr and <2"/3hrs across the area of concern. As such,
scattered incidents of flash flooding is considered possible
through the evening hours.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9R7uAVG39AqR_GgyzNHoocEpXj6N-mLrsgtVJEF9AZUKlLdQ_zutQBTkRo8879qjakSG= qGXJFCKtMHG7l40ela-YtlA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 42128004 41587964 40837906 40367935 40258095=20
40108247 40088414 40398468 41128467 41428446=20
41598400 41708288 41498233 41938083=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260040
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-260600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0179
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
839 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle and Cap Rock...Adj East-Central
NM...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260040Z - 260600Z

SUMMARY...Upscale growth from individual supercells toward
clusters and small complexes is expected to increase rainfall
efficiency and expand areas of intense rainfall rates/totals
through early overnight period. Spots of 3-5" are possible and
more incidents of flash flooding will be likely.

DISCUSSION...00z Surface analysis denote a surface low WNW of
Clovis with slowly retrograding dry line extending southward
across SE NM toward ROW/ATS and CNM. A strong and steepening
frontal zone extends from the low northeastward toward the
Canadian River Valley northeast of AMA to BGD and HHF before
sagging southward again across central OK. Low level moisture
continues to stream eastward and while sfc Tds have remained in
the upper 50s/low 60s, the depth of moisture continues to increase
as PWat values have risen a few tenths in the last few hours,
though still remain greatest/pooled along and south of the frontal
boundary through the upper Red River valley where values are over
1.5". VWP shows LLJ is starting to increase from 850 to 700mb
with that moisture return with lower winds increasing into the
lower 30 kt range from the southeast but southerly flow at 700 is
about 20-25 kts.=20

As such, moisture flux convergence from 850-700mb is starting to
maximize along the front and convective activity has perked up in
the last hour or so, expanding across toward the surface low in
eastern NM. While KDP/ZDR suggests large hail currently remains
main threat, there is expanding moderate to heavy rainfall
signatures as the overall near storm profile continues to
moisten/saturate especially in the lowest levels. This will
increase rainfall efficiency from supporting 1-1.5"/hr rates
currently toward 2"/hr after night fall occurs.=20

Additionally, RAP forecast along with some suggestion in GOES-E WV
loop (and AMVs) suggest a broadening diffluent region toward the
jet occurring over the TX Panhandle. This is expected to expand
with increasing divergence aloft through 06z as it slowly shifts
eastward. This will further enhance confluent low level moisture
flux toward other developing clusters into a few smaller
complexes. Slow forward cell motions and storm scale interactions
suggest cell mergers and increased duration at given locations.=20
As such, there remains a solid signal of spots of 3-5" totals and
given recent rains and FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr and 1.5-3"/3hrs it
is considered likely that localized flash flooding concerns will
continue into early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5N-0sd9vPVk7VcgHHY2ft_IoFztZyOTqiK5qvnXTzVnrFGLctrqf1E959b2UNU0BUlYQ= zDMEdZ4Ytjcxzmv3pmpe7VA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35930148 35800077 35360033 34710017 33860040=20
33380094 33410180 33760301 34100340 34880381=20
35380318 35800230=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260109
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-260615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0180
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
908 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Areas affected...Northeast OH...Northwest PA...WV Stovepipe...Far
Southwest NY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260115Z - 260615Z

SUMMARY...Localized widely scattered convective cells capable of
producing 1"/hr rates with a low-end risk of 1-2" totals to
continue to pose isolated incident or two of possible flash
flooding overnight.=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts an anti-cyclonically curved
cirrus shield indicative of right entrance positive
ascent/divergence across the Ontario peninsula into the Lake Erie
region. Nose of well above average (95th-99th percentile)
moisture feed/LLJ or warm conveyor belt has been persistent from
the southwest aided by orographic ascent through the western
Allegheny Plateau. Some remaining conditionally unstable air with
500-750 J/kg of CAPE appears to be aiding remaining convective
cores across far NE OH into NW PA at this time with some cycling
of cooling tops noted in 10.3um EIR. Given 1.25-1.4" Total
PWats...rates of 1"/hr still remain observed though likely to
downturn slightly over the next few hours with further loss of
surface heating. Still orientation of convection is broad enough
in the WAA regime and fairly parallel to the deeper layer steering
to support some short-term repeating/training potentially
resulting in a spot or two of 1.5-2" totals in 1-2 hours. Given
complex terrain, these rates and totals are in the range of the
1-1.5"/hr and/or 1-2"/3hr FFG values to be exceeded. As such,
localized flash flooding remains possible.=20

While the instability will be decreasing due to low level heating,
the main mid to upper level trough remains upstream with CAA aloft
likely to steepen mid-level lapse rates to maintain weak CAPE of
250-500 J/kg. As such, there will remain potential for weaker
.25-.5"/hr rate showers along/ahead of the cold front crossing the
area. This may aggravate some areas that were near or just
exceeding FFG and result in increased runoff through the overnight
period past 06z with streaks of an additional .5-1".

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_IxUaTP-0-xqiaFTsxUZaerFGjq2DlIb8QrUij8E-ZLjQEFpw9hNKqQOIDCQi7Ised8o= 6FPBHy_FiRcUUjiv0eEUAM4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 42547841 42207786 41497774 40667823 40037945=20
39758064 39858135 40218170 40948194 41388187=20
41918102 42417952=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260141
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-260600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0181
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
941 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Areas affected...Northern GA...Upstate SC...Western NC...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260140Z - 260600Z

SUMMARY...Progressive, but intense line moving through rugged
terrain poses a possible localized flash flooding concern through
early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um loop shows a rapidly cooling and
upstream expanding line of thunderstorms across northeastern GA
with additional cooling noted along the southwestern edge of the
older outflow boundary moving out of AL into western GA. RAP
analysis supported by surface observations shows some remaining
elevated temperatures in the mid 70s to a few low 80s across the
northern portion of the state. Tds in the mid 60s and steepening
lapse rates aloft continue to support a pocket of 1000-1250 J/kg
of CAPE along/ahead of the convergence line. Additionally,
surface to boundary layer winds have backed and increased
orthogonality to the line to further increase convergence and
updraft strength. Deep layer moisture lags the instability axis
slightly, but confluent low level flow of 15-20kts, help flux
convergence with PWats reaching about 1.5".

RADAR trends show some northeast cell motions within the line,
especially further north to subtly increased heavy rainfall
duration, as such, rates of 1.5-2"/hr have already been estimated
across the northeast and spots of 2-3" are possible as the line
crosses the area. Given complex terrain and lower FFG values, a
spot or two of exceedance suggest flash flooding is possible.=20=20
Also of note, the line is in the process of crossing the Atlanta
metro, which is also prone to such rates given impermeable
surfaces. Otherwise, the progressive nature will likely limit
overall flooding risk to lower end and isolated to widely
scattered in nature through early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6HXsN-0KAo9swWJQALG0aDlKrtzTCE9zTO14Zktbk6FEzuy58DLOF5sVAuvwmOWL1rnL= 3UDoxav0N78Mg_NHrrmYJIY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35718287 35628228 34938165 34058166 33498243=20
33138311 32838375 32828452 33058496 33768494=20
34288456 35368357=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260622
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-261030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0182
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
222 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into northwestern TX/southwestern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260620Z - 261030Z

SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding will be likely from portions of
eastern NM into and across the TX Panhandle into northwestern
TX/southwestern OK. Slow movement of heavy rain cores will be
capable of producing rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr as the threat
gradually builds east over the next 3-4 hours.

DISCUSSION...06Z radar imagery from the TX Panhandle showed an MCS
with an embedded MCV attempting to become better organized over
the TX Panhandle near Amarillo. MLCAPE and MUCAPE values were
estimated to be 1000-2000 J/kg (higher values to south), PWATs of
1 to 1.5 inches and effective bulk shear values of 30+ kt (via SPC
mesoanalysis data). This environment has been supportive of
organized supercells with varying motions and spotty very heavy
rain with observed rainfall rates locally in excess of 3 in/hr.
Individual cell organization has become a bit poorer near/north of
a quasi-stationary front but farther south, a supercell was noted
west of I-27 near Earth and the environment remains capable of
organized cells. In addition, the heavy rainfall threat was
maintaining significance with cooling still noted on infrared
cloud tops. 850 mb winds were southeasterly at 25-35 kt over the
southern Panhandle, advecting moisture and instability into the
convective complex over the Panhandle.

Forecast Corfidi Vectors suggest a general eastward motion to the
MCS should continue in the short term through additional
convective development is probable along convergence tied the
southward sagging frontal boundary over northwestern TX and
moderately strong low level flow into the boundary where
uninhibited instability was present. The result will be an
expansion of convective coverage with embedded elements of
training, slow and erratic individual cell motions and merging of
heavy rain cores which will likely result in continued high
rainfall rates, possibly exceeding 3 in/hr. Portions of
northwestern TX have received heavy rain over the past 3 days and
are locally more susceptible to flash flooding from heavy
rainfall.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9FasTZT8hSZNys83Q55tj1gpLu1TNcgIGzk4q43Et76ulQh67muG8MGCz96yIf48QuNP= Q1JnIQ-DVt_7GWg2M3THYfQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35589989 35339903 34709859 33839904 33580005=20
33660195 33730291 33890411 34900414 35520234=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261015
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-261500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0183
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
615 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into southwestern/central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261013Z - 261500Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding is likely to continue across portions of
the TX Panhandle into northwestern TX and southwestern OK over the
next few hours. Peak rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr and peak
additional totals of 3 to 6 inches will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic and infrared satellite imagery at 0945Z
showed an MCS advancing slowly eastward across the TX Panhandle
into southwestern OK. Embedded thunderstorms were located along
and north of a wavy quasi-stationary front which extended westward
across northern TX, just south of the Red River, into the southern
TX Panhandle and eastern NM. A couple of forward propagating
segments were observed toward the southeastern edge of the MCS (in
the vicinity of Childress), located south of an eastward advancing
MCV near Pampa. VAD wind plots showed 35 to 46 kt of southerly
flow over west-central to central TX which backed to a
southeasterly direction near the Red River, supporting the robust
transport of low level moisture northward atop the surface front.

The training and repeating nature of cells along and north of the
front have supported peak rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr across
southern portions of the TX Panhandle within the unstable
environment. The front marked the northern edge of 500-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE with 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE located north of the front via the
09Z SPC mesoanalysis.

As the MCV over the TX Panhandle continues to advance eastward
into western OK over the next few hours, continued convection
enhanced through warm air advection will spread eastward beneath
convectively influenced diffluent flow aloft. Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms in the wake of the MCV over the western TX Panhandle
are expected to continue to congeal as they advance eastward and
eventually bow southeastward into the low level inflow layer with
periods of training. Some of the heaviest rain is expected to
occur south of the MCV track where new thunderstorm development
ahead of the advancing southeastern flank of the MCS should setup
a prolonged period of heavy rain with additional totals of 3 to 6
inches possible through 16Z, most probable over portions of
southwestern OK or perhaps far northwestern TX.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Aq53z0gQ7BaFo9NR_l5lsTuHDO4qmlAU_t8gUxZ1tn0WHo2vsro8iVeU_0mn2jqj0qn= Q7euJh7B1LvBxntf3b91OWw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36249818 35819712 34999736 33889853 33659943=20
33710086 33810202 34010268 34240320 34860353=20
35430296 36000126=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261447
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-262100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0184
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1046 AM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Areas affected...portions of Northwest TX into North TX and
south-central OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261500Z - 262100Z

Summary...Scattered instances of flash flooding are likely to
continue and expand in association with a mature MCS/MCV with
additional localized totals of 3-6" expected (most likely from
Norman/OKC southwestward into portions of North TX). Localized
significant and life threatening flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...A mature MCS (mesoscale convective system) has
progressed southeastward out of the TX Panhandle and northwestern
OK from overnight into the morning, resulting in 6-12 hour
localized rainfall totals of 3-6 inches. The leading edge of the
squall line has reached a quasi-stationary surface boundary draped
from the southern Permian Basin eastward along and near the Red
River of the South. Some of the heaviest totals have occurred in
association with a well-defined MCV (mesoscale convective vortex)
and accompanying RIJ (rear-inflow jet), producing localized 3-6"
totals in the vicinity of Lawton, OK over just the past 3 hours
(with hourly totals as high as 2-3"). Most recent observational
trends support continued training and repeating of cells with
1-3"/hr rainfall rates along and near the path of the MCV/RIJ
(which should progress towards the northeast at near 20 kts within
the southwesterly mid-level flow). While instability is somewhat
limited on this trajectory (though MU CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg
extends northeast into the OKC/Norman metro area), the dynamics of
the MCV (as well as the influence of the right-entrance region of
a 90 kt polar jet streak over the Middle MS Valley) are providing
ample diffluence aloft with effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts.
Along the southern and southwestern flanks of the MCS, much more
ample instability (gradient of 1000-2000 J/kg of SB CAPE) with
appreciable low-level (850 mb) moisture transport via 20 kt LLJ
(low-level jet) should continue to support localized rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr. Training and repeating of cells moving west to
east along the combined gust front and quasi-stationary boundary
may support excessive rainfall farther south into northwest TX as
well.

Primarily relied on hourly runs of the HRRR and experimental RRFS
since 06z, which are in remarkably good agreement (hour-to-hour
and between the two separate models). Additional 3-6 hour totals
as high as 3-6" are expected, though generally occurring to the
south and east of where prior rainfall has occurred (though some
additional overlap is possible, resulting in combined totals of up
to 8" in some localities from south of Norman, OK to the southwest
along and near I-44 to the Red River of the South). Very wet
antecedent conditions (with NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-1 m soil moisture
anomalies at or above the 90th percentile) have resulted in 3-6
hour FFGs (flash flood guidance) of 2.0-3.0 inches, suggesting
that additional scattered instances of flash flooding are likely
(and could locally be significant and life threatening,
particularly if these higher-end totals occur over metro areas).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7dh7aFHyBpfxJKjPKhZ1sow3WOq8VPkGTc7P0t0bKdbP9t0JJcYcqqDf7CuNVDhy5yya= qQ4KARA0ETRWFEmOzWfnZhE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36039651 35389590 34409620 33529759 32869861=20
32500005 32770224 33670264 34060208 34250107=20
34410000 35019889 35439824 35849754=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262024
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-270200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0185
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
423 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Areas affected...Eastern OK...Western AR...Adj Far Northeast TX...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262025Z - 270200Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms in warm sector ahead of dying
MCV to support 1.75-2"/hr rates and scattered spots of 2-4"
totals. While FFG values are high, an isolated incident of flash
flooding or two may be possible.

DISCUSSION...Last night's MCS continues to decay with some
remaining ongoing fractured convective activity along the leading
edge where DPVA intersects some elevated unstable energy across
east-central OK eventually into NW AR. The main MCV is nearly
fully occluded and is shearing out as it moves NNE along the KS/OK
boarder. However, mid-level jet streak over the Red River, likely
in larger scale synoptic diffluent region of the 3H jet is
starting to strengthen the effective triple point mid-level
circulation and develop a newer MCV across south-central OK. This
wave as strengthened low level flow across northeast TX advecting
higher low 70s sfc Tds and some warmer air within the clear sector
to support 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE across SE OK toward Texarkana.=20

The sharp frontal zone has resulted in weak directional low level
confluence along its axis and new thunderstorms are developing
south of the main old stationary front further north across SE OK.
These WAA induced cells have solid bulk shear for updraft
rotation to support increased localized moisture flux convergence
along the pooling q-axis due to isallobaric influence. As such,
moisture loading along with slowed forward propagation is allowing
for efficient low level rain-fall production with 1.75-2"/hr rates
becoming increasingly probable over the next few hours. ENE cell
motions may allow for some cross tracks for the most intense
downdrafts and spots of 2-4" are considered possible through the
evening hours, particularly along and south of the surface front
into central western AR.=20

NASA SPoRT LIS products denote the area of concern is mainly
aligned with RSM 0-40cm at average or slightly below average in
the 45-50% range. This also aligns with the higher FFG values
across the region, so even with the intense rainfall, it still may
be difficult to exceed those values, especially further south and
east near the Red River Valley where 3"/hr and 4"/3hr is
apparently required to induce FF. Still, the overall organization
and prolific history with the overall system and favorable
moisture/instability environment still hints at one or two
isolated low-end flash flooding incidents may still remain
possible through this evening.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_oKDg3__20k9e8DyvugMLiYjJjVqnvLQCo3sK4tDhN4g9cljquwEyIEOiQf5YTdYpMzA= a2tbwI3IZ3vcAayci_jZ190$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36159508 36079443 35879395 35599355 35049318=20
34039305 33559373 33559511 33689672 34399705=20
34899629 35539564 35929543=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 272251
FFGMPD
MTZ000-WYZ000-280430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0186
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
650 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Areas affected...Northwest WY...South-central MT...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272250Z - 280430Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective activity along/south of sharp
stationary deformation zone will allow for slowly increasing
rainfall rates and localized totals up to 2" through early
overnight period. Rain over snow pack will further increase
runoff and the potential for flooding conditions.

DISCUSSION...An anomalous deep closed low across the Great Basin
has a strong vorticity center rotating along the northeastern
quadrant across the north-central Rockies of WY and ID. Both GOES
WV suites show a highly divergent mid to upper-level pattern
across southern MT enhancing the deformation shear axis from
central ID across SW to central MT. A similarly sharp 500-1000
thickness ridge extending across SE MT to the northern High
Plains, suggestive of very slow propagation vectors and convergent
deep layer steering flow along the downshear side of the deep
upper-low in the area of concern. Strong dynamic ascent will
need to overcome limited instability warm/moist air in the lower
profile and utilize slant-wise ascent toward the deformation zone.
However, a ribbon of low to mid-level moisture has been trying to
bleed through the terrain of south-central MT into northwest WY
with Tds into the low 40s supporting .25 to .5" low level PWat
values.=20

As the main forcing lifts north an 850-700mb cyclone is deepening
across northern WY which has further strengthened low level
northeasterly flow convergent with southerly flow along/ahead of
the synoptic cold front starting to press through W WY/E UT at
this time. So solid moisture flux will continue from the east and
deeper source throughout the evening into the early overnight
period. Already, the deep layer convergence is utilizing
available moisture with convective towers seen breaking through
the cirrus canopy across south-central MT with increasing
lightning noted. Given the stationary deformation zone and
increased convergence, cell motions will be limited or even
stationary with potential of increasing upstream mergers
throughout the evening. So while intensity of .25-.5"/hr is
expected (with some HREF probability nearing 50% for 1"/hr rates,
driven mainly by the NAM-Nest) these rates are falling in
proximity to some warming snow pack that will also add to the
runoff and potential flooding concerns through the evening with
localized totals of 1-2" possible. Even where snow has melted,
NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil saturation values are running well above
normal and over 70-80% across areas north of YNP. As such,
localized flooding is considered possible through the evening into
early overnight hours.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_7trUiFzDZpdFHVCPwZIM83ppYryUyQRRhtOIDLZs72pgPSCQ5aGJYYx-4XZC61TNV4I= ZVaYMRSxOdfLAyZLOEcaukY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 46790966 46640866 46060778 45300753 44850810=20
44120844 43910862 43860911 44090974 44481043=20
44781126 44911207 45341225 45801200 46321153=20
46631078=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 272332
FFGMPD
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-280500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0187
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
731 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Areas affected...Sotheast MT...Western SD...Northeast WY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272330Z - 280500Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving increasingly efficient thunderstorms capable
of 1"/hr and spots of 1.5-2.5" totals in less than 3hrs posing
possible localized incidents of flash flooding

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis at 23z, shows a deepening sub-1000mb
surface low between BYG and GCC in northeast WY bulging eastward
along the western edge of the Black Hills before dropping south
through the NEB panhandle toward secondary wave near TOR. Surface
Tds of mid to upper 50s are wrapping around and through the Black
Hills and trying to draw westward along and north of the bulge
across SE MT. Full heating along/ahead of the wave and solid DPVA
aloft from approaching upper-level trough within the eastern
quadrant of the deep upper low over the Great Basin and the low
level moisture is resulting in solid instability numbers, even to
1500 J/kg as far west as Big Horn county, MT. As such,
convergence along the bulging dry line and easterly flow north of
the low has lead to a cluster of strong severe thunderstorms
across SE MT. While hail is main concern, there is ample moisture
flux to support increasing rainfall production.

Given proximity to a sharp 500-1000 thickness ridge and generally
weaker steering flow in proximity to a sharp deep layer
deformation zone across central to northeast MT, even though
organization, cells will be slow moving allowing for .5"/hr rates
to slowly increase toward 1"/hr rates in the coming hours as deep
layer moisture flux increases Total Pwats from .75-1" to 1-1.25".
Below average/early season FFG values are within reach for
1-1.5"/hr and 1-2"/3hrs across SE MT into the Black Hills of SD.=20
Eventually cold pools should generate and low level flow will veer
in proximity to the dry line bulge and cell motions/propagation
will become more easterly, still duration may allow for some spots
of 1.5-2.5" totals though early overnight period across the area
of concern and so isolated incidents of flash flooding are
considered possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_dWBXY2a-da0RBsxxrHmcTpieg-WWRvgIZgxRxxO3c8OQ25IRj8jr3wCOD_LwxRVqKoa= BjFEi3MTXhnBq02N5xOjnak$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 47780660 47600599 46880600 46390542 45730365=20
44950276 44130242 43500324 43640421 44500518=20
44790632 44930698 45120728 45750749 45900757=20
46450817 46790850 47160826 47450764=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 272336
FFGMPD
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-280500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0187...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
735 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025

Corrected for Southeast MT in Areas Affected Line

Areas affected...Southeast MT...Western SD...Northeast WY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272330Z - 280500Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving increasingly efficient thunderstorms capable
of 1"/hr and spots of 1.5-2.5" totals in less than 3hrs posing
possible localized incidents of flash flooding

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis at 23z, shows a deepening sub-1000mb
surface low between BYG and GCC in northeast WY bulging eastward
along the western edge of the Black Hills before dropping south
through the NEB panhandle toward secondary wave near TOR. Surface
Tds of mid to upper 50s are wrapping around and through the Black
Hills and trying to draw westward along and north of the bulge
across SE MT. Full heating along/ahead of the wave and solid DPVA
aloft from approaching upper-level trough within the eastern
quadrant of the deep upper low over the Great Basin and the low
level moisture is resulting in solid instability numbers, even to
1500 J/kg as far west as Big Horn county, MT. As such,
convergence along the bulging dry line and easterly flow north of
the low has lead to a cluster of strong severe thunderstorms
across SE MT. While hail is main concern, there is ample moisture
flux to support increasing rainfall production.

Given proximity to a sharp 500-1000 thickness ridge and generally
weaker steering flow in proximity to a sharp deep layer
deformation zone across central to northeast MT, even though
organization, cells will be slow moving allowing for .5"/hr rates
to slowly increase toward 1"/hr rates in the coming hours as deep
layer moisture flux increases Total Pwats from .75-1" to 1-1.25".
Below average/early season FFG values are within reach for
1-1.5"/hr and 1-2"/3hrs across SE MT into the Black Hills of SD.=20
Eventually cold pools should generate and low level flow will veer
in proximity to the dry line bulge and cell motions/propagation
will become more easterly, still duration may allow for some spots
of 1.5-2.5" totals though early overnight period across the area
of concern and so isolated incidents of flash flooding are
considered possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ZdCcDG0wQ7mqaRM0Cb_ygwg4LgT6RyszKTP5aK-iZZDLXG-LYMNSc9qCMmQv85wtuLK= fp7lJjaQZ3zrJCF5QZZudJc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 47780660 47600599 46880600 46390542 45730365=20
44950276 44130242 43500324 43640421 44500518=20
44790632 44930698 45120728 45750749 45900757=20
46450817 46790850 47160826 47450764=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280435
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-280930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0188
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1235 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Areas affected...NE/SD border into central/northern SD

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280432Z - 280930Z

Summary...Widely scattered instances of flash flooding will be
possible from the NE/SD border into central/northern SD and far
southeastern ND through 09Z. Short term training of organized
cells and areas of heavy rain will support 1 to 2 in/hr rainfall
rates and localized totals near 3 inches.

Discussion...04Z surface observations placed a triple point low
just southeast of Pine Ridge, SD with a trailing cold front
co-located with line of thunderstorms extending southward through
western NE. A cyclic supercell was located east of the surface low
in Cherry County, NE along a warm front with elevated
thunderstorms north of the warm front into south-central SD. The
frontal cyclone was related to a large closed mid/upper low
crossing the Intermountain West, with highly favorable upper level
jet induced divergence and diffluence across the central SD/NE
border. SPC mesoanalysis data showed anomalous moisture in place
over SD with PWATs between 1 and 1.2 inches and MLCAPE was
estimated to be between 500 to 1500 J/kg along the central SD/NE
border with elevated instability of 1000 to 1500+ extending
northeastward into east-central SD.

The track of the surface low is forecast by the RAP to advance
into central SD by 09/12Z with advection of low level moisture and
strong lift helping to erode the capping inversion seen on the 00Z
ABR sounding. The ABR sounding indicated 700-500 mb lapse rates of
9.1 C/km which should support strong updrafts into the overnight.

Deeper layer steering flow form the SW will allow for some areas
of short term training as the triple point low and related fronts
advance into SD over the next few hours, with low level
convergence aligned with cell motions. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
are expected which could produce some 2 to 3+ inch totals and
widely scattered instances of flash flooding given flash flood
guidance values of 1.5 to 2.5 inches in 3 hours present across
much of SD.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5cYUUL5zCaVh5UImT3CU_Mf4ctEypeD3r7xOMxaEXnmp_HU9I50TXGIJJjBZgMr9qlKQ= 9AYvvgrEuT76FFbHdRBJZak$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...FSD...LBF...OAX...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 46179863 46129736 45199698 44029708 42799796=20
43000005 42950195 43240265 44290188 45560021=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280545
FFGMPD
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-281140-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0189
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
145 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Areas affected...western ND/SD border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280544Z - 281140Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible in the vicinity
of the western ND/SD border from slow movement of heavy rain over
the next 3-6 hours. Rainfall rates occasionally exceeding 1 in/hr
are expected to lead to spotty 2-3 inch totals through 12Z.

DISCUSSION...GOES East infrared imagery and lightning data showed
the slow eastward movement of a small cluster of thunderstorms
which was located near the tri-state region of MT/ND/SD at 0520Z.
A combination of 700 mb VAD wind plots, 850-700 mb LPW imagery
along with RAP analysis data showed the upper level reflection of
two surface lows over the High Plains. Using 700 mb as a
representative level, the low centers were located over
southeastern MT and southwestern SD, with a general weakness in
the 850-300 mb steering flow near and southeast of the tri-state
region. MUCAPE of approximately 500-1000 J/kg was in place from
the eastern MT/WY border into the western ND/SD border via 05Z SPC
mesoanalysis data.

The weakness in the deeper layer flow is forecast by the RAP to
maintain and perhaps deamplify the winds even more through 12Z
across the region (as low as 5 kt). The weakness aloft will
continue to allow for slow movement of heavy rain cores from along
and east of the MT/ND/SD intersection into southwestern ND and
northwestern SD. Instability values are likely to weaken as lower
levels of the atmosphere cool in the wake of the stronger low over
SD which is forecast to track northeastward, resulting in moisture
wrapping around to the north and west of the low into an elongated commahead/deformation zone which will contain embedded heavy
rainfall rates.

The potential for hourly rainfall of 1 to 1.5 in/hr will be
greatest through ~08Z, after which point the reduction in
instability values should reduce rainfall intensity to a more
steady/longer duration rainfall event. Through ~12Z, spotty
additional rainfall totals of 2-3 inches will be possible which
may support some isolated flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_YM1yTafQONHrX6asL4cCmxvF6rHm5elBnRCKS1KoMRZ4qfUzSFtX5ibjcrCuWZPSoGW= uqe4GAagXgT8zpbaXfPOJA4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...BYZ...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 46360150 45950026 45390049 45060185 44990334=20
45260426 45930437 46270349=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280902
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-281500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0190
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Areas affected...southeastern ND into northwestern MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280900Z - 281500Z

SUMMARY...Steady rain with embedded rain rates of 0.5 to about 1
in/hr are expected to affect portions of southeastern ND into
northwestern MN through 15Z. While rainfall intensity should
remain relatively low, total rainfall 1 to 2 (locally 2+) inches
may result localized areas of runoff.

DISCUSSION...0850Z water vapor imagery and MRMS reflectivity
showed the manifestation of a low to mid-level vorticity max over
east-central SD, slowly advancing toward the NNE. Anomalous
moisture was present with recent GPS data indicating 1.0 1o 1.1
inches near FSD, with northward extrapolation using SPC
mesoanalysis and sounding climatology data, suggests moisture
across the Red River of the North was over the 90th percentile.
GOES East derived winds and short term RAP forecasts highlighted
an 80-100 kt jet max positioned over northeastern CO into central
NE with left-exit region induced diffluence and divergence over SD.

As the low to mid-level low/vort over central SD moves north,
favorable ascent will overspread eastern ND into western and
northern MN within a SW to NE oriented deformation zone which is
expected to slowly pivot over eastern ND. 850 mb winds to the east
of the main surface low will continue to advect anomalous moisture
northward which will wrap back into the cold conveyor
precipitation axis where weak instability (up to 500 J/kg) should
be present per recent RAP forecasts. The combination of the
anomalous moisture, strong ascent and weak instability should be
enough to support localized rainfall rates of 0.5 to about 1 inch
per hour at times, with a longer duration heavy rainfall axis
impacting southeastern ND into northwestern MN through 15Z.
Localized totals within this axis of 1-2 inches are expected, and
localized totals in excess of 2 inches will be possible along with
localized flash flooding given possible exceedance of the 1,3 and
6-hour FFG.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-9kdz3Ql0hBEblXSPiW_A5YnrZBL6XNpk0DCR8FwTSeclGVOVuKsbsTpwVbvipmjCkYy= 2skUT_X8Vv7GZAOWO94MGkY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 48139576 47819517 47039572 46129752 45639924=20
45820012 46460006 47019919 47849716=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290012
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-290411-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0191
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
811 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Areas affected...northern Iowa, southeastern Minnesota, western
Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290011Z - 290411Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding could occur as a convective
complex migrates eastward across the region tonight.

Discussion...Scattered convection that had initially developed
across southwestern Minnesota has grown upscale into loosely
organized linear segments, with a bow structure noted southwest of
Eau Claire, WI. Southwest of this bowing segment, cells were
gradually maturing along an axis from near Rochester, MN
southwestward to north-central Iowa near Emmetsburg. Trailing
convection southwest of the bow has exhibited a favorable setup
for convective training. Cooler surface temperatures (in the 50s)
northwest of the training axis is indicative of a maturing cold
pool that could interact favorably with southwesterly 850mb flow
to maintain convergence and new updrafts streaming into the
training axis for another 2-3 hours or so. This scenario should
help to maintain ongoing 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates (estimated per
MRMS) where convective training is most pronounced, leading to
isolated spots of FFG exceedence and flash flooding.

This scenario should be relatively short-lived, however. Models
suggest that 850mb flow will veer gradually to westerly through
03-04Z, which should act to limit training potential by decreasing
convergence along the edge of the aforementioned cold pool. As
long as convective training persists, isolated flash flooding will
be possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_-_EKBTA_c9I3YiqutjyEpLuLz3wnz_-0PU0yWbMQa8f-HNujL6G00n0WJf1PsDMtF0S= W-8kiQnJVpRW0UmEgUBHrok$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...GRB...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 45109092 44738987 43928987 43299109 43089444=20
44229398 44909261=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290040
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-290639-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0192
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
839 PM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Areas affected...northeastern Kansas and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290039Z - 290639Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding have occurred near Manhattan,
KS, and additional instances could continue for at least another
2-4 hours. Spots of additional 1-4 inch rainfall totals are
expected.

Discussion...Between 22Z and 00Z, trailing convection has
developed upstream of a lead supercell currently about 25 N of
Topeka, KS. These cells were redeveloping just north of trailing
outflow behind that lead supercell (extending across Manhattan and
areas southeast of Salina). This axis also happens to be
collocate with a dryline extending through Salina to just east of
Omaha, NE. Surface winds have remained backed across
central/southeastern Kansas ahead of this complex. This scenario
has enabled focused convergence of updrafts from south of Salina
through Manhattan on to areas north of Topeka, with spots of 2
inch/hr rain rates estimated per radar. The stationary nature of
the boundaries and their orientation parallel to steering flow
aloft suggests a continued threat of flash flooding for at least
another 2-3 hours.

Although some uncertainty exists with respect to the persistence
of ongoing convection across the discussion area, continued
convective training appears probable for the next 3-6 hours across
northeastern Kansas. Both synoptic and mesoscale features are not
expected to change much through 06Z, with only subtle
southward/rightward movements of outflow and training axes based
on local convective evolution. At least 1 inch/hr rain rates are
expected in this regime as long as convective training remains
pronounced. Local areas of 2-4 inch totals could occur where
training is most pronounced.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_wZC2CZ-6MRkeFD2Wsjhg3qrgqOEOdN61247glka5ilR3N9vWTSFfwNLtXWLEeknJmVj= xlFs7zDLgOB9MkQD3o3Yeq4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 40319338 39849303 39429316 39039392 38699577=20
38279705 38269769 38999783 39829637 40299453=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291231
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-291700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0194
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
830 AM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Areas affected...Northeast OK...Far Southeast KS...Southwest
MO...Far Northwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291230Z - 291700Z

SUMMARY...A strong complex of showers and thunderstorms will
continue to advance off to the east over the next few hours. A
concern for isolated areas of flash flooding will continue.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a mature,
cold-topped MCS advancing eastward across central to northeast OK
and into far southeast KS. The convection is focusing in close
proximity to a wave of low pressure riding northeastward up along
a strong frontal zone, with a corridor of rather strong moisture
convergence in place. Additionally, there is a fair amount of
instability in place at least in a somewhat elevated fashion with
MUCAPE values of close to 2000 J/kg.

A southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts should tend to help
sustain the convective complex at least for a few more hours as it
advances downstream into areas of southwest MO and possibly far
northwest AR. The PW environment is somewhat moist with values of
around 1.5 inches, and this coupled with the organized nature of
the convection should tend to favor rainfall rates continuing to
reach well into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range.

The latest hires model guidance suggests some localized 2 to 4
inch rainfall totals may be possible where at least some brief
cell-training occurs in close proximity to the aforementioned
front.

This will be occurring over areas of the Ozark Plateau that are
rather moist from an antecedent conditions perspective.
Streamflows especially across southwest MO are generally running
above normal this morning, and these additional rains may favor
some more efficient runoff concerns. Thus, at least an isolated
threat of flash flooding will continue to be attached to this
convective complex over the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_YtAHwLIxvYXDoB8u53nWX34dYblkr38RB1FnHtjtADXvc4XSoSrZ1y__Raze2mg_rUs= sjYNOrD_g3qdFIMNh9KGVZk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37979386 37939220 36989202 36279334 35829505=20
35659624 35929694 36519683 37289562=20

=3D =3D =3D
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