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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0482

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 19 17:16:50 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 191716
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 191716=20
    PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-191915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0482
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

    Areas affected...western and central Pennsylvania and adjacent
    southern New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 191716Z - 191915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Some convective intensification is forecast this
    afternoon, accompanied by gusty winds and some potential for locally severe/damaging gusts. Need for WW issuance appears unlikely at
    this time, but will we will monitor convective evolution.

    DISCUSSION...Meager instability is indicated across the central
    Appalachians area early this afternoon, though sparse cloud cover
    across western and central Pennsylvania and into adjacent southern
    New York will aid in gradual/modest destabilization over the next
    few hours.

    A band of thunderstorms is now crossing the Pennsylvania/Ohio
    border, moving rapidly east-northeastward at around 60 kt. This
    storm motion is being supported by quasi-unidirectional
    west-southwesterly flow through the mid troposphere, increasing with
    height to around 50 kt at 2km and around 90kt at 4km. The strength
    of the flow field and associated speed of storm motion suggests
    potential for locally strong wind gusts -- particularly with any
    appreciable destabilization. However, with generally weak CAPE
    likely to remain somewhat of a limiting factor, WW issuance is
    currently not anticipated.

    ..Goss/Mosier.. 04/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-avp-PM9t40XwjosWPbKC2LbO7qzDD5uXyzCcOAB2Xr1Xu4_gklOXFOhLjt3kE1_Aae66Njie= _pq2mB02mYfAjLwMCE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

    LAT...LON 40508087 41318043 42327825 42467656 41037663 40717767
    40408021 40508087=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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