ACUS11 KWNS 200011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200011=20
TXZ000-200145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0488
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...portions of southwestern into central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147...

Valid 200011Z - 200145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 147
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 147 and Tornado Watch 148. Severe hail appears to be the main
threat in the short term, though a couple of tornadoes cannot be
ruled out, particularly in Tornado Watch 148.

DISCUSSION...Several supercells are training along a baroclinic
boundary across southwestern into central TX, with a history of
producing severe hail up to 2 inches in diameter, as also shown by
recent MRMS mosaic radar data. Ample buoyancy (e.g. 1500-2000 J/kg
MUCAPE) amid strong deep-layer shear should continue to support
severe hail with these storms over the next few hours. Many of these
storms appear to be undercut by a southward-sagging baroclinic
boundary, which has succeeded at impeding adequate surface-based
inflow for better tornado potential so far. However, with time,
these storms are expected to pivot eastward into the warm-sector,
where a preceding southerly low-level jet continues to intensify.
Regional VADs across central into northern TX also show low-level
hodographs becoming larger and more curved. As such, a couple of
tornadoes remain possible with any storms that manage to cross the
baroclinic boundary into the warm sector.=20

Later this evening, storms may eventually merge into one or more
MCSs, perhaps progressing eastward as LEWPs with a damaging
gust/isolated tornado threat, as suggested by some of the latest high-resolution guidance.

..Squitieri.. 04/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!718JgF28876x0CNkaJdvnn5GxAxP3xlN25GjayefsJpe-fpLFQg7sDZQRYl2O6xnRiJZISHJl= kfLKM3N7LAUDTdPpnE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 30990255 32689985 33519857 33569805 33279791 32459807
31569836 31159903 30940066 30990255=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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