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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0499

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Apr 20 07:03:52 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 200702
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200701=20
    TXZ000-200900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0499
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0201 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

    Areas affected...Southwest...Central and North-central Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 151...152...

    Valid 200701Z - 200900Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 151, 152 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes will
    continue to be possible for a few more hours across parts of
    south-central, central and north-central Texas.

    DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor and mosaic radar imagery show a
    linear MCS located across the from the Texas Hill Country extending north-northeastward into central Texas. Ahead of the line of strong
    to severe storms, a narrow axis of moderate instability is analyzed
    by the RAP. This line is located along the western edge of a 50 to
    60 knot low-level jet. Short-term model forecasts suggest the
    low-level jet will strengthen and shift northward, providing lift
    favorable for continued storm maintenance within the MCS. RAP
    forecast soundings near and ahead of the linear MCS have 0-6 km
    shear around 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
    will support a potential for supercells with isolated large hail.
    Severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, and bowing
    segments. A tornado or two will also be possible with supercells or
    any rotating element within the line. Also, forecast soundings along
    the southern end of the line have a capping inversion. This
    inversion is expected to increase with time. As the storms move
    gradually eastward, this cap should help reduce severe potential.

    ..Broyles.. 04/20/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!85ZVWArnmt_ZFnhxhPqs28dhR_zQhYL1T8SaVEuEzE_oWv1rvduEjTVFJVQw_CdfiCV4japSi= igLB51oTIensNMei4o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 30369896 31479822 32299782 32779787 33089807 33179836
    33189863 33069898 32769922 32279924 31739957 31010000
    30530031 30230043 30000024 30059947 30369896=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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