1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0413

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 5 18:04:30 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 051804
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 051803=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-051930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0413
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0103 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

    Areas affected...southeast Missouri...southern Illinois...western
    Kentucky and far northern Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 051803Z - 051930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...A downstream watch may be needed from southeast Missouri
    across western Kentucky.

    DISCUSSION...A well-established bow has developed across northeast
    Arkansas with multiple measured wind gusts between 60 and 80 mph.
    This bow is mostly on the cool side of the surface boundary, but the
    cold air is shallow enough to support some downdrafts and continued
    severe wind gusts. While this bow likely will undergo some weakening
    as it moves into increasingly deep cold air north of the boundary,
    there is a reservoir of better instability across western Kentucky.
    This may provide enough buoyancy to support some severe wind gusts
    this afternoon. There is currently minimal surface-based instability
    forecast north of the TN/KY border (per SPC mesoanalysis) and with
    extensive cloudcover, it may be difficult for surface based
    destabilization. However, if even weak surface based instability can
    develop this far north, strong low-level shear would support a
    tornado threat.=20

    In addition, a band of storms has continued to strengthen across
    western Tennessee with some supercell structures apparent. These
    storms could move north of watch 122 with some severe threat this
    afternoon. A watch may be needed in the next 1 to 2 hours to cover
    the threat from the bow and this pre-squall line convection.

    ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/05/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5r_JB33gm-EHj1jdgSbOUjxPMXJmsglqiyviCpiI-KMvZ_fR_R9KQbf86LvX7Cr2ur1LnbZtG= FkHhA9rxP-iAOpvwMo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 36228945 36409016 36449022 36789000 37208942 37648805
    37968661 37378592 36678630 36368766 36228945=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)