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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2216

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Nov 20 23:34:59 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 202334
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202334=20
    ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-210200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2216
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0534 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

    Areas affected...over northeast Texas and into far southwest
    Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 202334Z - 210200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe storm or two may affect parts of northeast Texas
    and vicinity this evening. Locally damaging gusts along with hail
    over 1.00" diameter may occur.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a moist air mass over eastern
    TX, east of a cold front and south of a warm front which is nearly
    stationary. Surface winds are generally weak across the moist sector
    with little surface pressure gradient. This weakness extends up to
    850 mb as well, where speeds are on the order of 20-25 kt.

    While cool midlevel temperatures remain over the area, the primary
    trough continues to eject northeastward from the TX Panhandle into
    western OK, with strong midlevel warming to the south. East of this
    wave, height tendencies are forecast to remain rather neutral.
    Still, moderate mid and high level southwesterlies are resulting in
    effective shear around 50 kt. These elongated hodographs
    conditionally favor a few longer lived cells off the cold front.=20

    Areas of stronger cells currently extend from Ellis County into
    Limestone/Falls Counties. The Ellis County complex is near the warm
    front, and may persist as it rides along that boundary, with
    enhanced ascent and gusty wind potential.

    ..Jewell/Smith.. 11/20/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6_CC28xJ5QrBMlxFllzvBPNy2FXyWacTtW-z-5aYFZ6RocCjNIhn61B9gvBoyld43RLRZege2= gL5Y6HW4oQjZKSdErc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

    LAT...LON 31239705 31899674 32489667 32799671 34059540 34309470
    34179418 33699391 32329453 31789515 31419600 31239705=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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