ACUS11 KWNS 071719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071718=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-071915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Areas affected...pats of the Carolinas and far southern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 071718Z - 071915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A band of scattered thunderstorms may pose a damaging wind
risk this afternoon. A brief tornado will also be possible. A WW is
being considered.

DISCUSSION...As of 1715 UTC regional visible and radar imagery show
some convective development taking place near a weak frontal low and
along a cold front across portions of the western Carolinas and far
southern VA. Filtered diurnal heating is raising surface
temperatures to near 80 east of fairly expansive cloud cover near
the front. Surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F are
contributing to weak buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE from SPC
mesoanalysis) despite weak mid-level lapse rates less than 7 C/km.
As heating and lift from the front/upper trough continues, scattered thunderstorms may gradually intensify this afternoon. Current obs
show low-level flow is veering, but remains somewhat strong around
15-20 kt. With moderately strong deep-layer shear in place, some
storm organization into bands or clusters is possible. Stronger
low-level flow may also support transient updraft rotation,
especially near the east-west warm front where winds are more backed
across parts of northern NC and southern VA.

As storms gradually develop through this afternoon, a few more
robust clusters or line segments may emerge. This would support some
potential for damaging gusts given the strong background flow. The
tornado risk is much more uncertain, but the strong deep-layer shear
and some enhanced low-level shear near the warm front could support
a brief tornado with the stronger rotating storms. Confidence in the
coverage of severe storms is low, owing the relatively limited CAPE
and poor lapse rate profiles. Still, an isolated risk may emerge
this afternoon. Conditions are being monitored for a possible
weather watch.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 04/07/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-Mhofwk9tiopRJR56Hark9pzwMw-qfmDvYIDlLieT7TnF5sN-rsmoNDCk9X2AVo-RJKXp7rmS= knXE0__u9xOfAX7A1U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 33648162 35847952 36747758 36687618 36387573 35507571
34567721 34217822 33857904 33308020 33648162=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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