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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0532

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 23 22:31:04 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 232230
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232230=20
    KSZ000-COZ000-240000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0532
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0530 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

    Areas affected...far southeast Colorado into much of western Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 163...

    Valid 232230Z - 240000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 163
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 163. Large hail remain the primary immediate threat. However,
    severe gusts may become a bigger concern later as storms merge. A
    tornado remains possible.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures have developed across
    portions of northwestern Kansas, some with a history of producing
    hail over 2 inches in diameter, as well as occasional bouts of
    low-level rotation. Given 8.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates and
    locally stronger deep-layer shear preceding these supercell
    structures, large hail (including 2+ inch stones) should remain the
    primary hazard over the next couple of hours. However, these storms
    are rapidly increasing in coverage and are showing signs of merging.
    Should mergers occur, a cold-pool-driven MCS structure may
    materialize with a severe gust threat and perhaps some lingering
    concerns for hail. Several of these supercells will generate outflow boundaries, and if a persistent updraft anchors to any of these
    boundaries with unimpeded inflow, a tornado may also occur.

    ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7uFuY25LNcWHz6uyLSmnuXFsX9KK53B6OjSEE3SuY5Ejnd10LrFEX9R46b2eTpUbbYeHVetJZ= 94oBVjPsie6c5sPAvE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

    LAT...LON 37420322 38490231 39350144 39660045 39209994 38659979
    37749996 37280037 37120112 37010164 37090269 37420322=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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