ACUS11 KWNS 251722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251721=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-251915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0557
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Areas affected...TX South Plains and the southern Panhandle into far
eastern NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 251721Z - 251915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Several supercells will likely develop by late afternoon.
Very large hail from baseball to softball size will be the primary
initial threat. Tornado potential may be brief/limited early, but
will increase into early evening. A tornado watch will be needed by mid-afternoon.

DISCUSSION...17Z surface analysis placed a cyclone just west of
Amarillo, along a wavy quasi-stationary front across the southern
High Plains. A convective outflow boundary, reinforced by earlier
convection over OK, extends in a west/east-orientation centered on
the Plainview vicinity. Despite nebulous large-scale ascent,
low-level convergence along these boundaries coupled with continued boundary-layer heating should yield sustained thunderstorm
development by 19-20Z.=20

Ample low-level moisture, characterized by low to mid 60s surface
dew points are well-established to the south of the outflow
boundary. Despite some weak mid-level warming, peak MLCAPE should
reach 2500-3000 J/kg in a couple hours. Low-level winds will
initially be weak, but sufficient elongation of the hodograph will
support at least a few intense supercells by late afternoon. Large
to very large hail will be the primary threat. A more focused
corridor of tornado potential should become evident, with any
discrete supercells along the mesoscale outflow boundary, as the
west TX low-level jet strengthens into early evening.

..Grams/Smith.. 04/25/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9FGFUc5vu1BN7J1cBpk5ZUBGn3x11smzF0aSeZA1DyNfOAEBKXgUtv8ZzERb_2RO2m0r_riNZ= 5zM6Qxw6Hb4XLIPjJE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35620252 35030269 34440326 33910344 32950358 32750295
32740235 33110144 33150059 33350033 34040041 34580117
35280148 35660162 35620252=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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