721
AXNT20 KNHC 111006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Apr 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from near 08N13W to 04N16W, where it
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04S38W. Scattered
moderate convection is S of 08N and E of 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure is centered over the northwest Gulf near
27N91W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are observed on the
periphery of the high pressure. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in these
areas. Gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted elsewhere. No
significant convection is observed at this time. Areas of smoke
due to agricultural fires onshore are noted off Tampico in the western Gulf.

For the forecast, tranquil weather will prevail through this morning. A
weak cold front will move through the E Gulf this afternoon
through Sat. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will follow the front
over the NE Gulf tonight into Sat before diminishing. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front with moderate to
fresh S return flow developing over the W Gulf Sun and Mon before diminishing.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to eastern Jamaica,
then a trough continues from that point to 12N82W. Drier air is
noted west of the front/trough. Moderate to fresh N winds and 4
to 6 ft seas are noted west of the front. Moderate to fresh E
trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident over the eastern
Caribbean. Broad upper troughing across the northwest Caribbean
is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms off Colombia and
eastern Panama.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate tonight. Fresh to
strong N winds will persist off Nicaragua through the weekend
before diminishing on Mon. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades
will prevail in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend
before strengthening early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from west of Bermuda to E Cuba. West
of the front, 5 to 7 ft seas and moderate to fresh NE winds are
noted. Over the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to N winds
and 8 to 9 ft N swell are noted north of a stationary front along
17N. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds and are noted elsewhere with
5 to 7 ft seas, except for 8 to 9 ft seas over the tropical
Atlantic south of 15N.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front over western
Atlantic will dissipate today. The next cold front will move off
the coast of Florida tonight. The front will progress across the
forecast waters, followed by fresh W to NW winds north of 29N Sat
into Mon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front by
early next week.

$$
ERA
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522
AXNT20 KNHC 121041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Apr 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 05N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 02S41W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from south of 04N and between 25W and 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from 27N82W to 25N91W. Scattered
showers are noted ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds and moderate seas prevail over much of the eastern half of
the Gulf, especially east of 90W. Moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are found west of 90W.

For the forecast, the weak cold front will continue to move
through the E Gulf through today. Fresh NW to N winds will follow
the front over the NE Gulf through today before diminishing to
moderate on Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front
with moderate to fresh S return flow developing over the W Gulf
Sun and Mon before diminishing.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Windward Passage to a 1008 mb
low pres off NW Colombia. Abundant tropical moisture and
divergence aloft continues to generate scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms, affecting Hispaniola, eastern Cuba,
Jamaica and northern Colombia. The rainfall could be locally
significant, resulting in flash flooding. The moderate pressure
gradient between this surface trough and high pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico allows for fresh to strong northerly winds to the
west of the surface boundary, especially off Nicaragua. Seas in
these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh breezes and seas of
2-5 ft are found in the remainder of the NW and SE Caribbean.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent
in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds off Nicaragua will
continue through the weekend before diminishing on Mon. Fresh to
strong winds will develop in the lee of Cuba, the Windward
Passage, and in the lee of Hispaniola Sun night through Tue as a
high pressure center shifts across the Atlantic waters N of the
area. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will prevail in the
south-central Caribbean into the weekend before strengthening to
strong by early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front has entered the SW North Atlantic, extending
from near 31N76W to 28N80W. To the southeast, a surface trough is
analyzed from 29N77W to 24N81W. Farther east, a surface trough is
from 31N67W to a 1014 mb low near 22N72W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails in the vicinity of all these features, mainly
W of 64W. Moderate seas and moderate to fresh winds are noted in
this area.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a
broad subtropical ridge centered near 37N43W. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds are present between 35W and 65W. Seas in these
waters are in the moderate range. Farther east, moderate to fresh
northerly winds and moderate seas prevail. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will continue to
move off the coast of Florida today. The front will progress
across the forecast waters, with moderate to fresh winds on either
side of the front north of 25N, reaching strong speeds E of the
front and N of 29N by Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of
the front. Another weak cold front may enter the NW waters Tue
night with moderate to fresh winds on either side of the front.

$$
ERA

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080
AXNT20 KNHC 131026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Apr 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 03N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N19W to near 01S46W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted south of 05N and east of 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico, supporting
moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas east of 85W
and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh southerly
winds and slight seas are noted off Tamaulipas and southern Texas.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over
the E Gulf will diminish through today. High pressure will build
across the Gulf with moderate to fresh S return flow developing
over the W Gulf through Mon before diminishing.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough remains extended from western Hispaniola to the
SW Caribbean. A combination of this trough and divergence aloft
supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms impacting
Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Panama and Costa Rica. Heavy
downpours are likely, which may cause localized flooding. Drier
conditions prevail in the rest of the basin.

Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are noted west
of 80W and south of 16N. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and
slight to moderate seas are present elsewhere west of 80W.
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas prevail
across much of the central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas off Nicaragua
will continue through the weekend before diminishing on Mon. Fresh
to strong winds will develop in the lee of Cuba, the Windward
Passage, and in the lee of Hispaniola Sun night through Tue as a
high pressure center shifts across the Atlantic waters N of the
area. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will prevail in the
south-central Caribbean through the weekend before strengthening
by early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from a 1005 mb low pres near 37N68W to
the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Moderate to fresh NW winds
are found behind the frontal boundary, along with moderate seas.
An active surface trough and divergence aloft continues to produce
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Bermuda to
Hispaniola, especially between 60W and 70W.

The rest of the basin is under the dominance of a 1030 mb high
pressure system centered near 35N40W. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and the aforementioned surface trough result in
fresh to strong southerly winds north of 25N and betwen 57W and
67W. Moderate seas are found in these waters. Moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front over the NW waters
will progress across the W Atlantic through the forecast period.
Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail on either
side of the front north of 25N, reaching strong speeds E of the
front and N of 29N tonight. High pressure will build in the wake
of the front. The next cold front may enter the NW waters Tue
night with moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas on either
side of the front.

$$
ERA
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