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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0588

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Apr 28 20:34:29 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 282034
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282033=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-282300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0588
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0333 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

    Areas affected...Edwards Plateau into western/central Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 282033Z - 282300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed this afternoon as
    storms are expected to develop along the dryline in the next 2-3
    hours. All severe hazards will be possible. The tornado threat will
    steadily increase from late afternoon into the evening.

    DISCUSSION...Signs of mid-level ascent have been evident across the
    southern Plains with visible satellite showing increasing amounts of mid/high-level clouds moving in from the southwest. As a shortwave
    perturbation lifts northeastward this afternoon/evening, this ascent
    and additional surface heating should erode capping along/near the
    dryline. A high-based storm has already formed northeast of Fort
    Stockton in the last hour. Additional storms are expected to develop
    later this afternoon, perhaps within the next 2-3 hours.

    The environment will be quite favorable for supercells capable of
    all severe hazards. Very steep mid-level lapse rates were observed
    within the High Plains region on this mornings soundings. Large to
    potentially giant hail will be possible along with severe winds.
    Tornadoes will also be possible, particularly from southwest
    Oklahoma into the Texas Rolling Plains where dewpoints have remained
    in the upper 60s/low 70s F. The tornado threat will steadily
    increase with time as 850 mb winds increase east of the dryline from
    late afternoon into the evening. A strong tornado cannot be ruled
    out within this more favorable mesoscale zone.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/28/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!65C3kjXnkF_A1tX9E7GSJO3oBOdmwM-nGtLk-ypEKMLu7uplqSVV7LsxYIc_0bmlKd8MGjYbH= wP9vJ22Rgu-EfxF7iw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 34040023 35719959 36229909 36769846 36809782 36069709
    35409708 34339724 33289797 32219946 32199957 31330088
    31160179 31200232 31550250 32450181 34040023=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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